https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1321825367229911042?s=20
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Editing to essentially delete my post. Yeah, I misread the tweet.
Not necessarily. Even in a county that Trump won handily, the mail in ballots might still favor Democrats.
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i think it does muddy it for them though, i think it makes it less likely they can go for shutting off counting at midnight of 3rd if there are plans for stuff like this.
The picture will be crystal clear for them. If Trump is ahead at midnight, stop the counting at all costs.
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No i mean Rasmussen‘a thing, if I’m remembering right, was only doing LV even early on when the other pollsters are still doing RV. I know most switch to LV later, and the polls we see now are all LV-based results. Anyway I think that’s how they justified being “more right” than everyone else. Meanwhile they’ve been more wrong since.
Not sure I’d watch it.
Genuinely curious why we can’t speed up mail in ballot counting. Can’t people just throw money at this problem? buy more counting machines or hire more workers to count
In my world it’s exactly the same. Normally I’m getting paid pretty decently to sit around and arrange shipments… but in reality the biggest value I add is when things are going wrong. Also Tucker Carlson’s entire story is mega fishy. The big parcel carriers don’t lose very many packages. The odds of this happening on one uber critical shipment (that his dumbass didn’t upload to the cloud???) is astronomically low.
This is literally the dog ate my homework.
We know with these guys the papers are usually blank so likely not even worth paper + ink but just literally a few dozen sheets of blank paper.
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That is a great ad.
They are going to be counting 24/7 as soon as polls open in Philly so that’s good news for the count at least. A lot of red districts I think may be waiting until polls close to count because they are smaller operations.
On the other hand Philly is slow as shit under the best circumstances in a normal year. Hopefully they’ll surprise us with some competency.
Minnesota is polling worse than 4 years ago when Hillary barely carried it.
TX wasn’t supposed to be in play till 2024, trump has thrown gasoline and lit it on fire for the timeline in political shifting but that goes both ways. The blue wall is just a fence.
Turnout was pretty good across the board in 18 and some states that meant R’s definitively beat D senators even if the polls thought otherwise. I’ve factored the rural/urban split into it regarding my own adjustment to state polling.
In other words, if dems all show up we’re good, if it’s just milk warm on election day, at least one of those states that those models are assuming dem is gonna flip and there’s so many states biden is polling between 0 and 5.
- Pollsters have updated their methodologies for polling since 2016;
- There were fewer high quality polls of the MIdwest in 2016; and, most importantly
- What you posted isn’t actually true:
Biden lead in MN right now per 538: +8
Clinton lead in MN 5 days out from election in 2016 per 538: +5.4
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?
538 currently has Minnesota at 53.2%-45.3% for a +7.9% Biden advantage and a 93% Biden probability. In 2016, 538 had 48.9%-43.1% for a +5.8% Clinton advantage and an 85% Clinton probability.
edit: oh, I’m @j8i3h289dn3x7, I’m so fast, blah blah blah, I correctly look at 5 days out instead of dumb-dumb @spidercrab looking at election day blah blah blah
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If you look at the 538 2016 model, hit “now-cast” and click on NOvember 3, you see that it was actually Clinton +5.4 instead of +5.8, but either way, yeah, Biden is polling substantially better than Clinton in MN.
Lol.
Ties go to Trump and by “tie” Nate means close Biden wins. Fuck off Nate!