2016
tie, +7, +6, +8, +10
vs
2020 +5, +5, +6, +7, +6
I just looked last 5 (had to take trafalagar out) on RCP both ways. 2nd is slightly lower in all but one poll. If you insist it’s more accurate this time around you can make that argument I suppose but idk, if it’s a similar error it’s close again.
RCP is trash. They randomly exclude some pollsters while taking other obvious trash pollsters. 538 is much better, they take everything.
Maybe, but also, at least when Scott Rasmussen was still at the helm, they tended to have a stricter LV screen, that resulted in them being 1-2 points more Republican than others. Since Scott got kicked out of his own firm, they’ve veered into looney toons territory.
538 adds in more trash polls than RCP does, even if RCP is bigger trash.
also those polls I mentioned most of them were the A rating in 538.
Here’s the last five 538 polls of MN (accounting for everything):
They do some further weighting based on house effects, partisanship trends, etc.
Well at least Nate’s political analysis is always rock solid…
Biden is currently 89/11 in the 538 model.
In 2016 on today’s date relative to the election HRC was at 65/35 (she improved a few points in the last few days).
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. Although interestingly it kind of looks like maybe Nate quietly removed Trafalgar from his polls? I can’t tell if it’s that or some kind of bug, but when I search for trafalgar now in his polling average I can’t find any by them. I wonder if the accidentally posted bogus crosstabs were enough for him to remove them?
LOL temporarily embarrassed millionaires.
There is a world of difference between leading with 53.2% or 48.9%. The second important difference is that the current MN poll only has 1.5% non-Rep/Dem while in 2016 there were 8%.
Good news guys, I think Hawaii is in the bag.
Yep. Hillary never being above 50 was a huge piece of her downfall. Biden being above 50 almost everywhere he is up spells really really good things
FYI looks like this Texas +10 was a data entry error and was actually a Texas +4. 538 has that fixed now as well. Still an awesome result for Biden.
Texas + anything 5 days out is an astounding result.
Betting markets are starting to move in Joe Biden’s favor again after tightening for the past few days. Trump back below 40 cents on predictit for the first time since October 15th. Edit: Was at 39 cents when I posted this. Now he’s at 38 cents.
It’s probably even better than the top line too.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321860883312713728?s=19
Yeah, holy shit, predictit Trumpers did not like that NC pole, that moved it from Biden 64/Trump 40 to Biden 67 / Trump 38. That was a good pole. Especially from NYTIMES/Upshot which has been more bullish on Trump than other A+ pollsters this cycle. It really looks to me like Biden’s lead is expanding, not tightening, in these final days.
