When I really want to torture myself I use Presidential Election Simulator - 270toWin with the speed on slowest setting and live/die by what happens to FL/GA/OH/NC.
Best case is something like this.
This is like a 2-3 point polling error in Joe’s favor, or underestimating voter turnout, or Trump calls Kamala the c-word on Monday or something like that.
2 Likes
Just locker room talk, bro.
1 Like
if everyone who was going to vote on tuesday dies of covid before then, that map is very much live.
2 Likes
Using 538 current polling averages, if there is a 5ish point state polling error in Joe Biden’s favor (meaning they’re 5ish points too trumpy right now), and the error is relatively constant across the states, then this is the map:
Alaska starts to be really believable when you consider:
- In the event of a Biden landslide the race is called well before AK polls close; and
- That will depress AK Election Day turnout; and
- 1/3 of the 2016 total AK electorate has already voted by mail and that likely skews heavily dem.
Or gets left on the side of the road at Trump rallies.
1 Like
All these eye laser polls and not even a tick back to 89 11 (which I missed), long live Economist model at 96 to 3.
1 Like
If we lose I don’t want to be here for it. Someone is going to post their suicide note or something. I have enough traumatic memories now thanks.
2 Likes
Mr original plan was to take Wednesday off. Then I realized you cant just take a day off in the middle of month end close as an accountant, so I’ll be working in some state of impairment I’m sure.
1 Like
TX is out of reach in any realistic scenario imo. Best realistic outcome is flipping GA, IA, OH, FL, and NC for a 374-163 blowout.
like 50% of the messages today are about how everyone here suck. This is why the Republicans win
1 Like
In the event of a Biden landslide, don’t sleep on Montana. It is already up to 81 percent of it’s 2016 total vote and is conducting the election completely by mail. Recent polls have shown it tightening and within 3-4 points. All the ingredients for a high turnout surprise.
2 Likes
In fairness, it’s in the Texas tier. Right in between the Florida/Georgia/Iowa tier and the Montana/Alaska tier.
By the way, if there’s no real October surprise by like 6pm tomorrow I think we’re good. You would want to do it before the weekend and you’d want it to be more than a day before the election.
Like if we can fade the next 28-30 hours, all that’s left to fade is a massive polling error, cheating that hacks and changes votes, and court stealing.
Edit: when I put it like that we still have a lot to fade.
5 Likes
I’m sorry, but in my lifetime anyone claiming they know which way Flo-rida is going to go before the polls have been closed for a while has been super super wrong.
1 Like
It’s already too late for an October Surprise of mere Jim Comey Magnitude. That was 10 days before the election and still barely gave it to Trump. Short of one of the candidates dropping dead at this point, I think whatever is going to happen is going to happen.
1 Like
Biden yes in Texas and Ohio are the exact same price right now on Predictit.
