I don’t know where people are getting this from other than fatalism. I am pretty confident that heavily increased voting is a positive for dems by a large margin.
Unless the idea that the only way republicans can stay in power is through hardcore suppression we have told ourselves for years was just total bullshit.
This isn’t just a shift if votes from day of to early. The total number of votes this year is going to crush 2016, which is only good for the democrats.
People in this thread are constantly looking to turn positive signs into negative ones for whatever reason.
Who are these alleged people coming out of the woodwork to vote for Trump the first time? It is pretty easy to lay out a very reasonable case for increased democratic voting. Nobody has made even a slightly brow raising case for a bunch of new Trump supporters.
All they said in the WI case is that the state courts can’t ignore a duly enacted state law that says ballots must be received by election day. To my knowledge there is zero indication Gorsuch is down with arbitrarily stopping the counting of duly cast ballots. Things are bad enough as it is, no need to exaggerate here.
Anecdotal: my friend early voted in Marietta, Georgia today (majority-minority Atlanta suburb) and they told him yesterday set the single-day early voting record for their location. Looks like the EV surge isn’t slowing down this week.
Didn’t mean to across that way (though my creeping fatalism probably can’t be fully shook). I guess I was referring to a sense that when those posts first started coming in there was a lot of virtual high-fiving but now it feels like most people are reacting with, “well, that sounds good in theory, but man who the fuck knows”
We don’t know where Gorsuch stands that’s true. I would not want this to end up in a situation where we have to rely on him to save the day either though. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. I think it’s most likely it won’t.
I am totally on the “Denton” being so high in early voting is a good thing. Sure it went red in past presidential elections but ultimately the focus of the county is a college town, which I believe makes the potential for a shift reasonable. And I am not even talking about students voting. I am not even sure what the reality is for college students voting this year with corona. I have two nephews at UNT though, and they seem to think the demeanor of the city is very pro democrat.
However like the rest of Texas there is a rural/urban-surburan divide. Based on where Denton is, it is part of the D/FW creep that has swallowed up vast chunks of rural land over the past several decades. The amount of rural land in Denton County will continue to decrease rapidly moving forward.
Just looking at some speculative numbers, Denton county’s population has likely risen 10%-15% since the last election. The big cities in Texas continue to grow at a significant rate as the population of the state continues to become more urban.
There are just so many factors at play here, but I find it hard to land on any combination that indicates any sort of improvement for republicans.
I mean even if dems win every single state by a wide margin they will find a way to contest the results. There’s no iteration in which the outcome is peaceful and positive for the democrats in this.
Only way trumps getting out of office is if he gets absolutely obliterated from day of counts AND gets forcefully removed from office. Better hope the military doesn’t back trump, because the police force sure do.
Google what Maduro did to the legislature in Venezuela.
Did you read Kav’s footnote? Pretty sure Gorsuch signed on.
And this is why I feel terrified when Trump says he thinks they’re going to take the House.
SCOTUS has already demonstrated that the POTUS doesn’t need a constitutional argument to have standing to bring a case. They’ll hear it. The deadline to count votes in PA is apparently 11/11.
11/4 Trump gets a TRO to stop the count. Maybe 11/6 it gets to SCOTUS? Ruling late on 11/7? Resume counting 11/8 and race the clock?
A lot can go wrong even if we win. Trump’s side has shown a great understanding of how to use the legal process to stall and delay. Why wouldn’t they use it here?
Right but that’s the process of the election. The state legislature has the sole constitutional authority to send electors. It’s this one cool trick to steal elections that somehow nobody in modern times thought of before a few months ago!
If you read this very carefully and only conclude what he explicitly writes, the state legislature (without the governor) can pass a bill on 11/4 or whenever that says “Due to concerns of voter fraud all our electors go to Trump.”
Kav says that the state court cannot overrule that and SCOTUS will protect the state legislature.
In PA they start being counted at 7am but it’s a separate process with separate machines. They won’t be able to finish by the end of 11/3, but all the in person votes will be counted immediately.
"Article II expressly provides that the rules for Presidential elections are established by the States “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.” (emphasis added) The text of Article II means that “the clearly expressed intent of the legislature must prevail” and that the state court may not depart from the state election code enacted by the legislature.
Note that Kav added that emphasis, not me. Note no mention of governors signing bills to make them laws.
As Riverman said earlier, that kind of analysis re: state legislature directing how electors vote being approved by SCOTUS would be an outright coup situation. There are a number of ways SCOTUS can do that if they so choose, it’s not like there’s anything new there.
The Kavanaugh opinion we discussed earlier is a problem because it’s narrower (and some idiots could justify it) but still super harmful.
