The fact that it actually matters that a candidate visits a state is so dumb. OH NO HE DIDN’T COME HERE. I’M VOTING FOR THE OTHER GUY.
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I don’t think it matters. At all. It’s just a popular HILLARY SO DUMB meme.
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Counterpoint: 2018 race that was much closer.
And Biden/Harris isn’t Hillary and people just spent months protesting police violence here and are ready to vote out Trump.
RCP has Biden currently + 0.8 in Georgia…this isn’t the 2016 election
2.7M votes have been cast already compared to 1.3M at this point in 2016
People voting Biden have to wait in hours of lines here during early voting, so that extra boost of motivation could be the difference maker.
And I already told you I wasn’t comparing GA to MI…I was saying they aren’t correlated and pointing out they have the same number of votes.
He wins MI and loses PA then GA could be important. Or he loses WI then GA is important.
More on Wisconsin:
44 percent of the 2016 vote is already in, by mail. They don’t report party registration but
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320129918232109056
Wisconsin is gone for Trump. Biden’s got it.
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I’d be in favor of one Biden trip to FL, but only if the totality of his event is that he goes on stage and yells, “You have bled with Barry, now bleed with me!”, and tosses a red, white, and blue HurryCane onto an empty field.
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WI just moved down like 8 points on PI just today lmao
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11 would be a shocking number though given how rural WI is.
In fact so much so, if WI does win by 11, biden is only 2 points from clinching because MN/MI/PA are in the bag. (I’m still not putting OH in there sorry)
Not only is this true, it just has to be correlated with the rest of the Midwest.
If Biden is currently 70 points ahead with 44 percent of the 2016 total vote in, 11 seems realistic to me.
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Two senate seats in Georgia that are gettable. Electoral college equity is just a bonus. That’s a substantial fraction of the competitive Senate seats.
On a related note, Beto and Stacy should have both run for Senate. I can’t tell you who is running against Cornyn.
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She’s fine. She’s probably a better choice than Beto since he went on tilt after the mass shooting in El Paso. I get it obviously, but that’s what happened and he’s going to have to wait for Texas to be at least light blue before he tries that again.
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Hegar, she swears a lot and didn’t vote for obama is all I know.
wisconsin polling past 3 days
+11, +12, +13, +12 (2 of these are survey monkey so), +6, +4, +5, +5, Even
wild
It gets extra local news coverage, which matters a lot with older voters who religiously watch the evening news.
It can also be energizing for his ground game in the area, which is important.
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One of them will almost certainly be decided by a run-off, won’t it?
Both of them are likely going to run-off actually.
Yes. It’s a weird one for sure. I don’t know if the two Rs was strategery or how that happened.
If I understand correctly if no one gets 50% then the top two runoff.
And based on past turnout that’s a big R edge as the Ds have sucked at showing up for single seat elections.
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well that’s mainly because R’s were clearly ahead and now they are not in GA
runoffs are different though, weird shit happens, losing party usually more energized, etc.
for those not following on the betting markets, there’s a hard R push today in all the swing states. Even the ones that threw out +11 polls.
Biden down to 86/13 in the 538 average.