Rep or Dem - can you spot who is what?
Dem left… Repub right 
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https://twitter.com/jomalleydillon/status/1316550240216977409
Biden’s campaign manager with a very anti-Vince take.
That’s the right thing for a Biden person to say regardless if it’s true or not. Same thing with Trump people. You can’t trust anything either side says or leaks about their internal polling.
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Counterpoint: Biden’s campaign manager is not going to tweet “yeah, we’re dominating, nothing to worry about, everyone relax.”
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Now compare that with the expected ratio of dem/repub early voters and get a weighted %.
I did that last week with one of of the polls that came out that showed the breakdown of early/day-of and Trump/Biden. I ended up with a complete Biden blowout. I don’t remember the number, but it was comfortably in the double-digit percentage.
Obviously it was very unscientific, it just used an early poll, and things change but it was a fun exercise.
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Yeah, I was good until the “Like a lot closer” part, that makes it seem legit, like a lot more legit.
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Based on what though? Internal polls? I don’t know why anyone believes that campaigns have these magical “internal polls” that are somehow more reliable than the public polls. Like, we’re getting 30 polls a day right now. Wander over to 538 right now and check out the national polls just from today:
Biden +9 (Morning Consult);
BIden +8 (IBD/TIPP)
BIden +14 (USC)
Biden +12 (Whitman Insight STrategies)
Biden +11 (Marist College, A+ rating)
Biden +11 (NBC/Wall Street Journal)
Biden +13 (University of Masachusetts)
Biden +13 (Edison Research)
Like, the outlier polls right now are the ones that show Biden up only 8 points. I get that this can tighten, but this race isn’t “close” because some bs internal campaign polls say it is.
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Nice, that’s nice.
I really, really wonder how Trump would handle a complete blowout. Obviously he’d make up excuses and possibly start a civil war, but how would he feel deep down? Sadly I think he’d never own up to the reality of it and thus never feel the complete dejection I so dearly would love for him to feel.
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No, I think he would. Remember when he got booed at that baseball game and you could see he had a sad? It’d be like that I think.
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WHAT THE HELL HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE
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State polls are all over the place, and they believe the arguments that the ones more favorable to Trump in battleground states have merit. Plus Ds are voting by mail way more than Rs, and mail ballots get thrown out at like a 10% clip w/ no funny business. Plus funny business.
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Reminder that Biden is currently up 10.5 points nationally in the 538 average, 52.4 to 42. At this time in 2016 HRC was up 6.4, 48.9 to 42.5. At this time last week Biden was up 9.8 nationally. So there’s not really evidence that this is tightening.
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Would he though, when he’s likely “winning” on election day, then will rant and rave about FAKE BALLOTS forevermore after that? I agree if he got crushed on election day itself. Hope you’re right obv.
(I’m terrible at internetting, oh well).
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