New NBC/WSJ
Biden 53% (+11) Trump 42%
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316595168540348416?s=19
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I guess this is my prediction map as of today. Trump is unfortunately, still drawing live, not enough solid blues to clinch. I would like to be wrong but I just do not believe Ohio or Iowa end up blue (ernst isn’t liked so maybe she ends up running behind trump?)
NC least blue on that blue state section for me, I know that’s not true in polling but I’m going with my gut feeling to not trust it for now.
That’s not a snake it’s a tapeworm.
Fuck last time I checked dems were like 70-30 in the 18-34 range, did Trump pick up a ton of young racists? And a massive movement within Qanon/FB? That isn’t really a good result for us.
Also last I checked Biden had an 11 point advantage with independents. Though I think that was a different poll or average of polls.
Looks like whats really saving us is lololds.
OH Predictive Insights (B/C pollster) poll of AZ:
Biden 49%
Trump 45%
Jorgenson 4%
I’m going to guess there is a huge male/female split in that 18-34 group. Young white privileged males in this country are some of the most awful people you will ever meet.
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Our entire election cost double what Biden collected just last month! That’s accounting for population differences. We spent the equivalent of $600 million. Your election is going to be $11 Billion!
New Civiqs/Daily Kos polls
Virginia: Biden +13
Colorado: Biden +12
North Carolina: Biden + 5
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That’s the joke. And the fear quite frankly. And I meant uncounted due to malfeasance and/or court action.
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If I were a governor I would pass an executive order mandating that every polling place require masks to be able to come in and vote.
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I’d even have masks available at the door for anyone who needed it. Make these MAGA fuckers cry treason as they pack in to a polling place.
Although I actually do plan on voting in person. I debated on mail-in but calculated the risk of Trump shenanigans was too high, and to stick with the tried and true method. I live in a rural town. The round trip from my house to the polling place, voting, and back home, is under 20 minutes. Waiting to vote is not a thing here. I also work for a union shop that negotiated election day off. I literally get to stay home fucking off playing video games and take 20 minutes out of my not at all busy day to vote.
For anyone who is, like me, made nervous by all the seemingly undeniable good polling news, and who wants some dark side energy to help feel more balanced, I recommend the latest episode of the podcast The Gist, in which Mike Pesca interviews the dude behind Trafalgar polling, which apparently aced the 2016 election.
The transcript is not perfect, and you need to scroll down a little bit to read the relevant section, which starts with:
But first, you’ve heard about these QAI Trump voter, right? The idea that Trump has more support than the polls show? Well, there’s one pollster, Trafalgar, that consistently shows Trump doing five or so points better than every other pollster shows. And it’s easy to dismiss that, except for the fact that this pollster, Trafalgar, nailed it last time, got the Electoral College count right, was the only one to call such swing states as Wisconsin
Meh nailing it last time dont mean shit. Fish on a heater. Like that one idiot who got 24 out of 26 right based off primary numbers.
I need my optimism alive and well.
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Don’t have time to listen now…do they account for the fact that a lot of polls have Biden >50%, whereas that was not really the case for Hillary. Fewer undecideds available to be “quiet Trump voters”, unless they think people are saying Biden when they’re really voting for Trump.
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Another Greenfield +4 in Iowa poll dropped today. I can’t even remember when the last time a poll dropped showing Ernst ahead. Also the national polls seem to be stabilizing at around a Biden +10. There’s no real evidence of contractin back to a BIden +8, and certainly nothing indicating tightening beyond that. There are 19 days left. National Polls could be off by five times as much as they were in 2016 and Biden would still be favored to win the electoral college.
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NYTIMES/Sienna is dropping a SC pole today at 1:00. Anything better than a Trump +6 or so will be a phenomenal result for Biden given that HRC lost by more than 14 points there in 2016. Will be real interesting to see their numbers on the senate race as well.
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I think almost all pollsters have adjusted their models significantly to account for 2016 results and missteps. It is not apples to apples.
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Kamala’s comms director pozzed 
I think it’s reasonable to believe that any polling error would be more likely to be in Biden’s favor than Trump’s. Bias towards ‘fighting the last battle’ and not wanting to make the same mistake twice and all that.
Counterpoint, the pollsters didn’t really overcorrect in 2018, and the most notable miss was Florida, where they continued to undersample GOP.