I thought Abrams was all in on getting the VP slot, but that may have been a completely fabricated story. I just remember buzz about that back during the primaries, especially after Uncle Joe committed to picking a woman.
I have a feeling the simplest answer is that Abrams preferred to keep going with Fair Fight.
They were both being selfish and were concerned that losing two elections in a row would be their political death knell. Remember, when they had to make the decision to run or not, the election was looking to be much closer. So while now it looks like they would both have been slight favorites to win, back then they were likely looking at being underdogs.
So I’m curious whether Biden is trying to run up a big win spending time in places like Ohio, or whether he’s on another level and applying reasonable strategy.
There’s a very real chance that even if he carries states with a lot of mail-in votes by 7-10 points, Trump may be ahead on Election Night. As a result, in trying to prevent a dictatorial takeover, winning a state like Ohio, Florida, or Georgia can go a long way by delivering electoral votes on 11/3 and demonstrably proving that Biden outperformed Hillary drastically and thus almost certainly won.
I’ve said before that I think there’s a chance Texas tips us over 270 on election night if we win it, simply because Pennsylvania is likely to still be counting. So may Michigan and Wisconsin.
It creates a strange dynamic given that messaging on 11/3 is very important. Not as important as getting to 270, but there are a lot of scenarios where we get to 270-290 and lose in court or to a coup. That gets way harder if we have one or more of OH/FL/GA/TX on election night and probably makes it worth spending resources there… Especially given how cash rich the Biden campaign is.
Thoughts?
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By the way, remember Arizona moved a few points in Sinema’s favor in 2018 with normal turnout and mail in splits. Trump will likely be “safely” ahead there on election night if Biden wins it by like 3-5. I’m not even totally sure Biden is ahead in California in election day in-person votes if 75% of Dems vote by mail and only 25% of Reps.
Not sure about this, AZ will have been counting mail-in ballots for 2 weeks by election night.
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It’s pissing me off that I already have a stomachache about the inevitable poll tightening coming shortly.
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re Beto and Abrams
I would assume that every decision they make is calculated to achieve as much success/popularity/etc. as possible. Abrams didn’t want to run and lose again. Wasn’t worth the risk to her.
Bloomberg gave her foundation like five million dollars. If she loses that gravy train is over. Might have to go back to writing middlebrow erotic novels if that happened.
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It’s fine to be cynical about her motivations, but this is pretty fucking condescending about a woman who has done a shit-ton of good, positive stuff in her life already, and in fact wrote her first novel while earning her JD from Yale.
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I think Biden feels most at home talking to blue collar union workers and he thinks that’s the place he can make the most gains. I mean you can’t just stay in PA for a month.
Bigger picture those are the groups that turned the election in 2016 and Biden feels like they’re his people. I’d imagine he feels some responsibility to bring them back into the flock.
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So many undecideds is bad.
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Probably true. I think Hillary got 46% in NC in 2016 too.
Exactly what I wanted and pretty much supported what I thought was the case.
Houston, San Antonio, Austin fairly blue, El Paso area blue, near Corpus Christi (I think) has some blue and Dallas in a sea of red.
Everyone I talked to in Tarrant County (Fort Worth) has said early voting went very quickly. I might be concerned but they have always had a lot early voting locations, historically.
Edit: and thanks Gregoreo for his link (sorry about the spelling 
)
I would go with a Mystery Science 3000 format where Dems just dunk on Donnie Dumb Dumb in real time.
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Lot’s of interesting info in the full results of that NYTimes NC poll: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nc100920-crosstabs/3bf558d7ca17e9de/full.pdf
Biden 46%, Trump 42%, Jorgenson 2%, Hawkins 1%, Undecided 8%
Overall, only 14% plan to vote by mail, with 15% for Dems, 10% for Reps and 16% for independents
11% of the Dems have already voted, compared to 4% of Rs and 5% of Is
Ugh. Don’t like that NC poll at all.