“OK sure, I’ll be happy to take a drug test before we debate. Right after you release your tax returns.” -alternate universe Joe Biden
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Lolololol. Know your audience, jman.
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I didn’t say he’s going to win. I said he’s going to be president in 2022.
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I think a lot of people here are worried about that and think it’s possible, but I don’t think many people think it’s >50% with any confidence. So, I don’t think Biden being POTUS in 2021 is reason for anyone to go around crowing how they were right and everyone else was wrong.
If you went back to October to look up a prediction a stranger on a message board made you lost too.
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Best case scenario: We’re going to have an Avignon Trumpacy based out of Mar-a-Lago supported by 40% of the country. Every other plausible outcome is worse.
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Anyone remember when a republican led senate committee published a 1000 page report saying that Russia interfered with the 2016 election to assist Trump…a week ago. Or when the Supreme Court ordered him to turn over his tax returns a few weeks ago?
Institutions may not have bathed themselves in glory, but to adopt Trump’s perspective that he’s “winning” is simply false. Like, do people believe Covid is over and done with just because Larry Kudlow says it is?
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A week ago and a few weeks ago is 3 months before the election lol
Both parties trying to outdo each other on the Israel and police side lol
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1298738089330970635?s=21
And as a result, what has happened? The 1,000 page report was barely discussed or noticed by 99% of the public, and Trump still hasn’t turned over his tax returns.
Yes, like 30-40% of people in this country do.
Unrelated to this thread and just sort of a personal musing, but I deeply respect people who admit when they are wrong rather than just instinctively digging in.
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Cuse, a half dozen times.
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I have predicted him being more likely than not to keep power, not win. I’m on the fence on that.
I think Biden has a 99% chance of winning among votes cast.
I think it’s around a flip among votes that count.
I think Trump is a favorite to maintain power.
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This is both falsifiable and based on a pretty loose recollection, but my impression is that there is a relative paucity of polling these days. 538’s model has larger error bars when there has been lots of polling compared to when there has been little, and that is correct.
Simplest explanation is that Nate upped his variance for this cycle
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This might also be true, but if so, he hasn’t been terribly public about it or the methodology behind it.