Yeah but he almost certainly wins it in the House, so it’s really 28.
You also have to add in Biden wins, Trump says “lol fuck you” and declares the election illegitimate. I think it’s like 60-40 Trump stays in power. Maybe 55-45 or something like that that Trump wins via sabotage/cheating. Nate’s model is just the odds that more votes are actually cast for Biden in enough states to win the electoral college, and doesn’t account for the fact that some aren’t going to be counted.
I’m definitely WAAF but I don’t think the fuck you I’m staying in power thing will work. If it comes to it I think most of the military top leadership hates him and Roberts won’t rule in favor of a dictatorship. If he loses he’s out, probably kicking and screaming.
If the election were today I’d probably say 60/40 Biden, but of course we got a shit ton more sabotage and cheating coming our way so who knows, will probably end 60/40 Trump.
Whatever happened to the people belittling us and calling us stupid and pathetic for saying Trump would cheat? Months ago many of us said it was coming and we caught a TON of shit lol. Wheres my man @simplicitus? I believe he said there was literally no mechanism for Trump to cheat and I was being ridiculous. I have a feeling he still feels that way lol.
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I’d need to see a direct quote to respond regarding beliefs I don’t actually hold.
This sounds like something you’re making up. I don’t remember anyone here saying cheating wasn’t going to happen or possible to happen (it’s the only way Trump and/or the GOP senate has any chance to win). The difference is how successful people here think the cheating will be. The cheating can’t overcome the numbers we appear to have right now, just like the cheating couldn’t overcome the 2018 election. The GOP/Putin whoever is going to have to rig this at a level like his elections meaning it will be incredibly obvious how much cheating there is if they actually do try to overcome what’s probably a 9 point or close to that advantage.
I believe their goal is to cheat by about 5 to 6 percent and hope they make up the rest. If they try to overcome the cheating to the 9 percent+ necessary, there’s a chance they would create an impossible 10 point win for Trump no one would believe (the only way they can even get it to that is massive voter purges and stopping the mail which are things they’re trying to get away with). If anything, the election will still be an Electoral College sweat, but I think it’s highly highly unlikely Biden wins by fewer than 5 million votes even with a lot of cheating. That margin could put the Electoral College in play.
The problem for the GOP cheating strategy is that every day Trump keeps putting Florida and Texas more in play. If he loses either of those he has no path to Electoral College victory because there will be no chance Biden loses any of the other key big ones in any scenario where Biden wins at least one of them.
I mean this isn’t super bad, but I remember much worse than this. Not gonna dig through your whole post history.
There were several others as well.
And to be clear my problem with this is you being arrogant as always saying people love to wet the bed when sounding the alarm that some real bad shit was coming down the pipe. If you weren’t such a dick about it, it wouldn’t have been an issue.
mosdef
The paranoia about voting is just a conspiracy theory absent a mechanism, and mechanisms require people doing things.
Georgia 2018, maybe you have some kind of mechanism because Kemp is secretary of state and can devote resources to different areas based on data to some effect. Same with voter ID (to an extent), or fewer polling locations in cities, and similar shinanigans that basically constitute the voting baseline going back 40+ years.
There is no as yet unexplained conspiracy where Trump the moron is able to marshall thousands of people across 50 different voting systems. Getting Kanye to declare was literally his best idea so far.
I know people on this board love to wet the bed about rigged elections, like Trump in 2016, but there is no plausible scenario for systemic abuse. Will there be some tomfoolery and dumbfuckery and perhaps some riggage, sure, but it will not be sufficient to beat back the inexorable tide of reality.
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I mean, dismantling the postal service doesn’t strike me as a “plausible scenario for systematic abuse” even if that’s what Trump appears to be going for. To give Trump his due, he rarely limits his plans to the plusible or realistic, which is why the entire nation is now imprisoned and walled off from the rest of the world. Who woulda thunk it?
So, how’s this postal thing play out? Trump successfully represses 10M net Biden votes (so like 40 million total votes, where Trump would have 15M and Biden 25M)? The postmaster testifies before Congress (which has been called back from vacation/electioneering), commits perjury, there are no leaks or whistleblowers or contrary evidence, the Postal Commission falls into line and does nothing, regular non-political folks remain blissfully unaware, and Trump voters sneak to the polls on election day, bamboozling Biden voters, who foolishly stay home and mail their ballots on election day.
I’m actually a little worried about Trump’s little plot here, but it’s not as easy as it may seem and a lot of things would have to go Trump’s way. It seems like wishful thinking on Trump’s part, akin to his covid strategy (“Maybe if we don’t fund the post office the mail will shut down and I won’t lose. I’m a genius!”). He obviously has to be stopped, but he’s already tripped the alarm system and if he somehow manages to get away there’s going to be a lot of carnage.
Point being a lot of us saw stuff like this coming. It was pretty obvious. Desperate + no consequences + loyalists in charge of basically every federal agency + fuck you stop me = significant cheating coming. So maybe reflect on the whole lol bed wetting conspiracy theorist fools angle in the future?
I agree we still don’t know if this will succeed, but democrats should have expected this, been prepared for it, and we’d be in a much better position to fight it. Instead we’re scrambling and we’re on the edge of a dictatorship.
Like the DNC strategists should have realized very early on mail in voting would be huge in a pandemic and the USPS would be a weak point for Trumps cronies to attack. I’m sure some did, and we’re dismissed as conspiracy theorists because the system would protect them.
I think you’re clearly a smart dude but you have a huge blind spot,
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somewhat depressing thread
https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1295675105901793287?s=20
tl;dr: partisanship is a hell of a drug
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There must be a reason he’s gone so early with the USPS shut down. Even an idiot like him has an idea of when to do stuff.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Putin’s range of interference extends up to and including a large bomb explosion closer to the election date, with links to Muslims planted, if the USPS thing doesn’t work. After all, truthers have largely been discredited now so any suspicions or even evidence could easily be discounted as conspiracy theory.
They’d have learned a lot from the stupid mistakes they made in the Salisbury poisonings: arriving on the same flight and staying in the same hotel room with a knowledge of Salisbury obviously gleaned from wiki while claiming they visited the city twice because it rained so much the first day that (instead of buying umbrellas) they had to buy new shoes.
This is republican response to Dejoy hearing i take it?
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1295707067743899649?s=20
Lol wat. That guy has no concept of time beyond the present. He’s not timing shit. He’s hitting every button as he becomes aware it exists. Even worse he’s deeply resistant to having his information stream managed. With Trump it’s 80%+ RNG on when he found out about a thing for when it happens.
His whole business career was just him saying yes to absolutely everything anyone put in front of him. Every single thing. Bear in mind that being able to say no to the people you need to say no to is to effective leadership what being able to hit a major league pitcher is to playing first base for any kind of living.
The reason Donald Trump is a problem right now is inherited wealth full stop. There is absolutely zero chance this guy wouldn’t have died homeless or in prison if he had been born anywhere in the bottom 99.5% of families by wealth. This dude would have blown through a measly 1M dollar inheritance in the 70’s in five years or less. Guaranteed.
Donald burned so much money so fast that the flames and smoke from the fire were visible from so far away that it made for quasi effective advertising for the only asset his creditors couldn’t sieze, his personal brand. This enabled him to play a rich guy on reality TV and probably help people launder money without even having to pay taxes on the money cleaned because of idiocy in our tax code regarding real estate losses.
And then he got elected president because our society thinks it’s fine to melt the brains of 40% of the population assuming it lets you create a ~50B valuation media business. Because the brains of 40% of the population of a country with a ~20T annual GDP are worth 50B cumulatively.
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Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the Senate committee chair, will gavel the Friday hearing remotely, and is expected to press DeJoy on whether the Postal Service truly needs the $25 billion in emergency funding that the House has pushed.
Oh good, a Russian stooge will run the hearing.
For example, he was impeached 6 months ago for trying to get dirt on Biden a year ago.
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I just ordered a large Biden sign for my lawn from the local office. Hopefully my house doesn’t get vandalized. My mailbox coincidentally got smashed a few days after putting up a Clinton sign in 2016.
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USPS suspending “operational changes.”
It appears we won this round. Screaming from the rooftops and mobilizing actually works, apparently, and there apparently exist things that matter. Well done all.
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The Postmaster General was afraid of his employees going postal on him.
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Ok, as everyone can think of better ways to steal the election than Trump, what’s the next attempt going to be?
Answers on a postcard.
The statement:
https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/1295776474751012867
It’s not that we can, it’s that he can’t. Remember that he was at a COVID briefing where they said sunlight and bleach killed the virus and he suggested injecting bleach into people as a cure. He has zero foresight.
Sure, his lack of intelligence isn’t disputed. What I am disputing is that the sort of intelligence people deservedly mock him for lacking during the presidency (eg being unable to multiply 17 x 6 and childlike nonsense like the bleach cure) has much relevance to his attempts to steal the election, where the main things are being malevolent, dishonest and uncaring.
I guess Trump figured out that dismantling USPS would royally dick over his rural base.
God, is anyone seeing these Chuck Schumer Youtube ads? He looks like Death.