I live 2 miles from the white house. Is there any benefit to even considering escaping in the event of a nuclear exchange? I assume Russia has some subs off the coast that would flatten this whole area before I could even get to my car.
Economist article about what Putin going to nuke ready means.
His threat amounts to releasing the safety catch on a firearm. The reference to “special mode of combat duty” probably refers to the command and control of Russian nuclear forces. In peacetime, the system is thought to be incapable of transmitting launch orders, as if its circuits are disconnected, says Pavel Podvig, an expert on Russian nuclear forces at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, a think-tank in Geneva. In moments of crisis Russian officials can “bring the system into a working condition, connecting the wires”, says Mr Podvig, “so if a launch order is issued it can go through”.
Once that happens, he says, the system is designed to allow a launch to occur even if Mr Putin is incapacitated—though that requires detecting a nuclear detonation on Russian soil. In addition to all that, “combat duty” might also trigger other preparations, such as nuclear-armed submarines leaving port or weapons being loaded onto bombers—things that would be visible to America and its allies through satellites and other means.
I think your main problem is that even if you were able to get out before DC was hit, like, say there was a 20 minute warning or something, which direction would you go? East is out because of Annapolis, north takes you towards another major metropolitan. I know there are military facilities in NOVA, so I guess Northwest is your only option?
I used to have recurring ww3 nightmares. Like since I was a teen. But not in a while. Maybe they will come back. Not sure if that’s worse than the dinosaur I was getting chased by last night but not looking forward to it.
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During peace time launching first will go through a lot of people both in the USA and Russia but once there is a shooting conflict that number drops fast especially for tactical nukes and nukes launched by submarines. It also is pretty useless if the people that can stop it are in close physical proximity to a Trump/Putin as saying no just gets them fired/killed and the next in line gets to make the call.
From where we live south and west (95 or 66) are pretty much the only options. We’d be going west most likely. I don’t think it’d matter though.
This thread would be more fun if we were spitballing ideas, however fantastical, that end with Putin’s death.
From my research over the weekend, for the largest Russian nuke that would be used in such a scenario (800-1,000 kilotons), the blast radius and burn radius is 8-10 miles or less, the immediate radiation radius is like 17-20 miles, temporary blindness could impact people up to 53 miles away, and then after that you’re running from fallout and the wind direction plays a role, but 70 miles seems to get you away from it barring heavy winds, and you have a lot more time.
There’s also a distance in there where you survive the blast but suffer third degree burns over your entire body, a radius where it’s second degree (more painful than third apparently because third kills a bunch of nerves), and one where it’s first degree. Avoiding landing in that radius seems optimal, too.
These radiuses also change quite a bit based on a surface explosion versus one while it’s still in the air. The air explosion maximizes immediate damage from the blast, whereas the surface explosion causes more radioactive fallout.
Based on a little research over the weekend, I would say that if you can get more than 10 miles away from ground zero before impact it’s probably very +EV and your 1-year survival odds are probably > 50%. You’ve survived the initial blast, but you’re still going to get dosed with a lot of radiation if you don’t get any further and FAST.
If you can get more than 20 miles away within like 15 minutes of impact, your 3-year survival odds are probably > 90%. You’ve avoided the radiation dose that’s going to put you at risk for near-term death, most likely. Now the question is whether you can avoid the dose of radiation that’s going to increase your mid and long term cancer risk.
If you can get more than 70 miles away within a few hours, your long-term survival odds are probably > 90%.
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We are, he’s probably not going to survive a nuclear apocalypse for very long.
Also at the end of the day a lot of this depends on how you value 15-30 more minutes holding the ones you love who happen to be nearby versus X% chance of surviving and living a full or nearly full life. For me the X% chance of 35+ more years is worth going for as long as X% isn’t 0.00%.
I’m now in the North Jersey suburbs about 17 mi west of Manhattan. I am trying to picture the scenario… like I get an alert on my phone that an ICBM targetted at lower Manhattan will strike in 20 minutes.
I guess my best play is not to run to the car and try to drive west but gather as much food, water, and candles as I can and hunker down in my basement with the kids for 48 hours and hope that with the Watchtung mountains and distance we survive the initial blast and whatever is left of my house keeps the worst fallout away from us. Most days there’s an easterly wind so maybe we luck out there.
Does anyone know if it is recommended to avoid water from a city system during the subsequent days, or does the fallout not really impact that?
The problem with that plan is that you’re going to have to go through radioactive fallout at some point to leave your home.
My trigger to GTFO is quicker than knowing a nuke is in the air at my nearest city.
One thing not to underestimate is how little traffic an interstate can handle out of a major city.
1 traffic lane = 3,600 cars/hour
4 traffic lanes = 14,400 cars/hour
6 interstates leading out of a city = 86,400 cars/hour
3 people per car = 259,200 people/hour
That’s best case, 24 hours of perfect evacuation for a city of 5 million.
In reality, we’ll be lucky to do 25% of that rate (it would require reversing direction of travel, no accidents, etc).
Then again, 20 miles isn’t that far away to get.
The solar eclipse a few years ago was an interesting example of how jammed interstates get when there’s extraordinary demand. From Atlanta, you basically just had to get to the South Carolina border on I-85 to see it. About 2 hours. A lot of people left for the eclipse about 3 hours before. The outcome? I-85 was hopelessly gridlocked for like 100 miles. Almost everyone who tried this missed it lol.
My assumption is the traffic and panic of a nuclear apocalypse would be one or two notches greater than a solar eclipse.
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Doesn’t the worst of the fallout decay pretty quickly over 24-48 hours? I thought, if the house can keep any outside dirt or dust away from us for 2 days then it is survivable. And being below grade under a building is much better in terms of the initial gamma radiation than being 5 miles further away in a car.
I can’t imagine I80 or I78 is giving quick escape to the west, in this scenario. They sure don’t during normal rush hours.
3 year survival odds of >90% after a global thermonuclear war itt
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No, after a single nuclear warhead hitting the place you’re getting away from.
Right, my goal is to be 50+ miles away before enough people realize it for me to have traffic issues. But I’m also not leaving from a city, I’m already on the outer suburbs. I basically need to go like 15 miles on the interstate then we’d be safe and back roads would be fine.
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This has to be the right answer, except you need supplies (especially water) for way more than 2 days. Trying to flee by car if you have less than a couple days’ lead time seems like a sucker’s play.
Why’s that? Like if I’m 35 miles from the nearest big city, and the fallout radius a few hours after impact is going to be up to 70 miles, and I can leave before impact and say 10 minutes before people leave en masse (because I was prepared to leave), how is that not way better than staying?
Essentially I’m thinking I can get to the interstate and have 5-10 minutes of 100-120mph driving before traffic likely builds, which gets me 8-20 miles farther away before traffic hits, which gets me to a much less densely populated area and thus fewer traffic concerns.
If I’m 50 miles away at impact instead of 35, I may only need to average like 10 mph to stay ahead of the fallout, which I can reasonably hope to do on back roads with heavy but not gridlocked traffic.
Plus if most people ~50 miles away decide to hunker down, I’ll have very little traffic to contend with if I can get to that area quick enough. Also I expect a lot of people to make very poor directional decisions for a variety of reasons.
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