Potential outcomes of Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion (WWIII/nukes?)

Also, “black people just don’t have a culture of hard work”. I really don’t think being ruled by an emperor is a fucking congenital condition. Russians just love dictators guys, they’re crazy for them. Forget that europe was dynastically ruled for over 1000 years. Russia has been dynastically ruled for over 1000 years so we have to starve them all to death because they don’t know what good for themselves. They’ve all got Tsaritis and it’s genetic.

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Being Russian, I have to say that my personal feeling is that Russians (that’s, those who don’t leave when they have the chance) do have something of a predilection for dictators.

You guys still are all technically owned by the queen, right?

I don’t believe so.

…whatevers though as I don’t really want to get into a symantic argument about which verb is correct there.

Yeah it’s sad, I just don’t get the concept of freedom. Please kill me until I understand it.

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Let’s assume Putin dies.

What happens?

Sure seems unlikely its “man this was a really stupid war, bring the troops home and apologize to the world”

Probably the same thing that would happen if Bush dies a month in to the Iraq war.

Dick Cheney becomes president?

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half his administration will flee. the other half will have nowhere to go.

Russian Dick Cheney! Whoever that is, I’m sure he’s nice.

lol at keed. what do you think line of succession is in russia? know any names in it?

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I have no idea and of course not.

so could it possibly be the same as if bush died during the iraq invasion?

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They declare victory in Donbass and send the troops back home?

ok so seriously let’s say putin pops off a single tac nuke inside ukraine, what happens next?

I understand there is a lot of analysis arguing that this is unlikely because ukraine isn’t using massed formations of tanks/troops that tac nukes are intended to be used against, I don’t see this in and of itself as a very convincing argument that it won’t happen.

Possibly a no fly zone, probably Ukraine gets any weapons they want, definitely sanctions turned up to 11.

What happens next depends on China. If putting nukes in play would be enough to get them on board with real sanctions, that would significantly lessen the required response from the west.

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And if Germany were to immediately cut off all fossil fuel purchases from Russia. The most charitable explanation for what germany is doing right now is that they’re still dangling a carrot and a stick to keep Putin from using WMDs.

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From the US/NATO perspective, it’s important to let Putin know that something very bad is going to happen, but not exactly what that bad thing is. You don’t want to give him perfect information to weigh the pros and cons of a tactical nuke.

It’s the same concept as how you don’t want to let him know exactly where the red line is, so he can dance one inch from it (see internet trolls). Although any WMD is pretty clearly crossing the red line.

I would expect a single proportionate conventional response from NATO inside Ukraine, probably seeking to lessen whatever gain was made with the tac nuke. I don’t know if MOAR SANCTIONS is getting the message across that use of nukes is not going to fly.

Why not?