I mean he gotta make content but he basically said what everyone had - its a losing cEV play which makes it insane given all the other parameters involved. For Foxen those even multiply as her making the FT is worth more than any other player.
Itās a bad play but I really do appreciate players just going for it in the wsop. So much of this tourney has been nit folding and mostly correct nit folding.
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Yeah if sheās going to go for a play like that in a 3b pot with limited equity against a calling range, Iād rather it be on a board like T752 or something where your semi-bluff range is super small and your value hands have AA or KK dead to two outs.
It wasnt a 3b pot
Disagree with this.
Otherwise when you need to balance a table you would need to go back in time/forward in time as a player.
I would do round for round though.
I donāt think the KQ hand is terrible.
Great analysis by Doug. The solver seems to show turn calls (of the shove) with some aces that Iām not sure a live ME player would call with. So if the read is that the pf raiser does indeed fold those (perfectly reasonable) it probably swings it to a slightly +EV shove. That said as a cash game player Iām really surprised how wide the initial opening range is (j7s, T9o, Q5s). If that range is a lot tighter to start it screws up the rest of the solver analysis but probably not in Foxenās favor.
Edit: initial ranges were actually Dougās estimates (not solver ranges) that some people are disagreeing with
But if you were watching the entire time youād know that Serock wasnāt getting out line from UTG with two big stacks to push through. Thereās no way heās opening that wide. And Foxen had already run a bunch of bluffs in the tourney that got incorrect hero folds. Also she slowplayed her monsters 100% of the time.
In a vacuum the KQ fold looks a lot better than in context where you can see how everyone plays, with hole cards, for days.
I donāt even feel like the turn was a sure call like Doug did. Feels like a 75% pot bet on the turn is a milk 80% of the time or more.
You have 40M chips, middle of the pack. there are shortstacks. Just making the final table as the first woman in 33 years or w/e is massive massive $EV for her. Instead she seemed to get desperate to double her stack. She was getting frisky on some weird hands before this hand and got lucky she didnāt lose more chips.
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Thank you Pudge!
Almost all sim analysis is so, so bad.
So much of it is to just give players a defense over a bad play because āto be balanced, we have to punt 7% of the time in this spot with this combo.ā
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Yeah in the thick of things I would probably just roll my eyes and fold. Part of the problem is that river is just so miserable for you if you call. Say river is a blank, you check and opponent shoves. I mean thereās two missed flush draws. Solver will probably say you have to call it off which means your once in a lifetime deep main event run is probably over, but hey you might double up 35% of the time. I think the fact that being in check-decide mode on river is so ugly itās at least a slight argument for turn shove (and fold).
While that spot hypothetically really does suck, I think he has so, so few 3 barrel bluffs in reality.
One of the things I used to do when I did well in a lot of online tourneys was just never pay much to chase straights when flush draws were out, because when you hit the busted flush folds or if you hit and the flush hits itās not a happy place.
Similar for low-end straights and low flushes, because if you hit and all the money goes in, itās often not great.
Serock is wearing a āEat the cisā sticker shirt
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Based.
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Just hit sets every hand. Ez game.
Then fill up while your opponent hits the nut flush.
