He sold 75%
Probably part of it, but Dwan is very consistent over the years in trying to make the games he plays in be less wrong to see tons of flops and splash around preflop
And he knows that playing so deep, you are getting punished a lot for not being tight preflop if there’s not big antes
I usually think of it the other way – deeper, you want to play more pots. What have I got backwards?
Reverse implied odds
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You are right if your opponents are bad.
But you also need to have a 1000BB knowledge and skills base that most good 100BB players think they have, but do not actually have, or it doesn’t matter so much how bad your opponents are
Like you need to know the reasons why it’s not optimal strategy to play a lot of hands, so that when you apply that to the exploitations you choose to use, you see that there’s a lot of hands you thought you were being exploitative with, but you were just losing with, and the amount of deviation from optimal that’s profitable is not as big as you thought, even if your opponents are real droolers
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Agree but from a high level theoretical perspective the deeper you are and the wider the skill gap you will make better decisions than your opponents so can exploit them to a larger degree given deep stakes.
As you said, this assume the skill gap actually exists.
Right, and a big part of that is the tendencies fish don’t actually have, but would need to have, in order to make the skill gap large enough.
Mostly you still just want to play hands that most easily make the nuts on boards that someone else will also have a strong absolute value hand. The explotation in nearly any lineup is just going to be from understanding relative value and BBs better than your opponents. They would need to do things in other “directions” in order for a gap to be there to allow for other exploitations. A gap big enough to overcome the structural limitations of the game that determined the optimal strategy.
I remember watching a Phil Galfond short on youtube recently that summed up a broader version of this concept really well.
Wonder if I can find it
Deeper, you probably want to play fewer pots out of position and more in position.
https://twitter.com/coachjakab/status/1663809613161168896/photo/1
Not sure of what set him off here. I thought Durr had fully paid off his debt to jungle.
From a pure theoretical level we would want to be a littler tighter than our opponents if everything else was equal, including skill, right?
Our edge in this hypothetical would come from the pure mathematical edge we get by having the best hand more often when run hot cold.
This is why it seems the deeper you get the less this matters in a way because you can convert very small edges into much bigger profit when deep.
For example, pulling numbers out of my ass at 100bb deep we need a 10% edge, in terms of hot cold card value, to make X profit but at 1000bb deep we need only a 2% hot cold edge.
I could be thinking about this totally incorrectly too!
I think he apologized later for this tweet no?
Sort of - he still posted some cryptic message about Durr “doing the right thing.” Not sure I’d call this an apology, so much as semi-walking it back.
https://twitter.com/junglemandan/status/1663807366788427777
edit: looking more, seems like he claims durr still owes him money.
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As stacks get deeper, having the nut advantage becomes more important than having the range advantage. Playability on future streets becomes more important than hot and cold equity.
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This makes sense
If it’s not related to the bet debt, my guess is it relates to an interview with Veronica Brill after the big hand. She asked something along the lines of “How many pots have you played that are bigger than that in private games?”, to which Dwan responded with a question for Brill to guess a value to set the over/under. I think she guessed 6 and Dwan responded with “over”. Maybe Dan is looking out for Dwan’s income tax burden.
That’s why I said theoretical.
My point is when the skill gap is wide and stacks are deep it will be easy to leave tons of money on the table if too focused on nut advantage.
I don’t need nut flush if my opponent will happily stack off for 1000bb with 6th nut flush.
Nut advantage means having more super-strong hands in your range, not just being more likely to have the absolute nuts.