Wait, Garrett was on Survivor?
I find this and the chess cheating thing very interesting.
At first I was thinking “well, some people are just stupid, and they do stupid things. It might have been as simple as ‘He’s bluffing, so I call.’”
But then I thought, why would someone so bad at poker be in a game this big? That made me lean a little towards cheating.
Then I hear that she has actually been playing for years, and this makes me even more suspicious. Hardly anyone with experience would ever make that call.
But still, some people are really dumb even though they have experience. I’ve seen that at work. Plus maybe the TV cameras and pros make people nervous. And her actions when they are discussing how many times to run it don’t seem very suspicious to me.
As others have said, the cheating could just be a buzzer that goes off when you have the best hand. “If I feel a buzz in my foot, I call.” Of course a smart cheater could still fold this particular hand–but we’re already considering the possibility that she’s just an idiot. This would explain the min-raise too–if we already think she’s dumb enough to call the final raise with a J, she’s also dumb enough to cheat in dumb ways. “The buzzer went off, I have the best hand, I’ll just min raise and win it” (without considering that a min raise won’t get his big draws to fold).
Giving back the money is also weird. I remember in old Tiger Stadium, I bought a beer with a 20 and the cashier gave me change back as if I had used a 10. It was obviously a way to scam drunks. I said “I gave you a 20” and she protested once, then weakly gave me back the extra 10. If she really thought I gave her a 10 initially, there’s no way she would have caved so easily. The poker situation is different obviously, but sometimes scammers give back the $ when they are caught.
On the other hand, maybe she felt bullied, that is certainly plausible. If I won that $ fair and square, no way in hell would I give it back. But I guess I’m willing to entertain that others might do differently?
So in the end I’m still a little lost. What we have in my mind is two explanations, each of which seem somewhat plausible, each at least (say) 5% to have happened, but I have no idea how to say whether an option is 5%, or 50%, or 95% to have happened. Anyone saying “x is 100%” is off base, IMO (based on the evidence we have at the moment). If I’m on a jury with just the evidence so far, it’s an easy “didn’t cheat” verdict, since it’s not past a reasonable doubt.
How live is the stream? Is there a 5 minute delay or anything? Even if there was, I guess a tech on the inside could have live info and press the buzzer in real time?