Generally, the equilibrium is built around 4betting all the hands that EV wise really want to 4bet, then adding in bluffs to find balance. It’s not like the opening range doesn’t have plenty of 4b bluff candidates.
This does cause some premiums to get backed out of the 4b range from some positions, and is part of the reason AA is not a pure 4bet. Generally this is going to weight heavily towards AA though, because it doesn’t have any preference for protection. If post-flop range construction was the issue, though, you’d expect to see some QQ getting 4bet and that’s not in there.
As for check-raising the flop for value, it’s just going to depend on the ranges and flops and the one in question is one of the worst ones imaginable in this situation for our range.
AQo is a pure fold to the 3b UTG vs UTG+1 at a full ring table. I also don’t think it’d be a good bluff candidate because it doesn’t turn equity very often, and when it turns a pair we’re usually still losing to villain’s value range that continues. We’re still behind AA, KK, AK on an A/K and KQs and QQ on the Q turn, and of course we’re still behind 88.
Like if you plant me on the turn having x/r this flop, and I have a choice between AQ on an A or Q turn or something like 76s on a 9 or 5 turn, I’d rather have 76s. So 76s bdfd is a better bluff candidate, plus it benefits from folding out all the overcard high card hands that just b/f.
Yeah and if that’s the case it implies both players’ ranges should be extremely tight and they’re both butchering this hand from a GTO perspective at almost every opportunity.
Open: fine
3bet: too loose
3bet/call: too loose
flop cbet: fine
cbet raise: too loose
raise call: probably too loose
turn bet: probably too loose as played
turn call: bad
river over bet: very bad (targeting AK or better for folds just seems insane)
river call: very bad (if we even have worse than AK in our range at this point it should all be snap folds)
Don’t want to take anything away from someone winning the street poker wars though, well played I guess.
I think it’s really simple - nothing that smacks the dryest board ever x/r there, 76 would call for the backdoors, other stuff that could be a bluff on the river with better (TT) calls the flop downbet.
It’s really bad aggression if everyone is supposed to know what they’re doing. This is the epitome of “your line makes no sense I call”.
The tough part is the overshove if you care about money which is obviously understating it. Das a lotta money.
As I was watching live, it was hard to imagine him calling, since there really are no busted draws. How often is someone making this move with a naked bluff like AQ?
Yeah terrible bluff choice imo, and also interesting that the 87 is clubs so it also blocks K8cc and 98cc just in case. Not sure if he was thinking about that or not.
The 3bet is GTO at a 25% frequency. Now of course in this game, people will be opening wider than GTO because it’s a soft lineup and thus the 3bets can get wider and the continues can get wider, but then again if the guy on your left is good and 3betting anywhere near GTO you probably don’t want to start opening too wide and continuing too wide.
The 3bet is GTO at a 25% frequency. Now of course in this game, people will be opening wider than GTO because it’s a soft lineup and thus the 3bets can get wider and the continues can get wider, but then again if the guy on your left is good and 3betting anywhere near GTO you probably don’t want to start opening too wide and continuing too wide.
The call of the x/r with 87cc is almost certainly GTO at some frequency, IF there’s a x/r range for UTG.
This depends on whether UTG has KK and AK, if not, the turn call may be good.
The river OB is very bad because his range has so few hands that want it. Like I’m not even sure 88 wants it! If he has KK in his range then he can have an overbet range without it being suicide.
I mean, again, this overbet is repping sets primarily, or 76s if he x/r that on the flop. If he can’t have KK in his range, 87cc is a way better call than AKo imo.
Does moncek play these high rollers? Looked him up and he has around 350k in cashes and just won 150k and bracelet thsi year. I’m 100% rooting for this guy if he is just trying to spin it up with his recent win.
The solves I’ve seen at 30bb have 99 as a nearly pure open but at 3.8x and the 3bet size would be smaller, too. ICM could make a limp-jam more enticing, though.
I wish I could calculate my lifetime odds on bad beats. I’ve played for 20 years live countless hours all of which have bad beats and I’ve never even been in the building when it hit let alone taken a table share. I know guys who have 10+ shares.
The only time I ever hit one, I was on a road trip and stopped at a random casino to play for a bit. I didn’t even know they had one. I’d have mucked in disgust if I wasn’t the one who was called. It was LHE. I forget how many bets went in on the river, but neither of us had the nuts, and he was the one who stopped raising.
