Your psychic abilities need work obviously.
I’ve been defending Hellmuth against Clovis’ “objectively bad at poker takes”, but plays like that aren’t helping my case.
What’s amazing is that it wasn’t even the worst play he made that hand.
Like, dude. You fucked up massively by calling a third of your stack, but you’ve still got 15 big blinds. Not great, but a lot better than calling the rest off after one of the worst flops imaginable for pocket fours. Just let it go.
Just about every even remotely legitimate three-betting hand has you drawing to a two-outer. Of the other two possibilities, you’re an underdog to AQ and even the AK is winning over 40% of the time even if one of them isn’t a spade.
3 Likes
why do you think this, given his number of WSOP bracelets?
it’s tough because every decision in that hand is objectively terrible. Flatting the initial raise in UTG+1 with 44 on 24bbs is fucking awful, and if you’re going to proceed with the hand as played, then it is extra fucking awful. Calling the 3b is probably the best part of the hand if the plan is to set mine (which is a horrid plan, but less -ev than the other parts).
And I think that Helmuth is really good at something in poker. It’s like in Rocket League, where I frequently get called the worst diamond league player ever because I really suck at some parts of the game. The people telling me this are the same MMR as me because I’m much better than them at other parts of the game, but they only see me fuck up something that they could do easily so I’m a mega-shitter who probably bought his account.
Basically for Phil to have the results that he’s had over a long period of time while still making such obvious basic math mistakes, he’s either SUPER good at some aspect of the game against donks or he’s the smart Postle/POTRIPPER who cheats just enough to win a ton without making it obvious and I think that is very unlikely.
1 Like
I feel like he was really hoping for a soul read and guy turns AK or he exits. If he gets the soul read it’s a highlight reel.
Or it’s a normal standard deviation of luck and he just happens to be the guy on the extreme long tail.
This is the most likely explanation. He is an average player who has run far above expectation. Someone will. It just happens to be him.
Not possible for the length of his career.
People play hands like shit sometimes. I know I have.
He plays the JT Cloutier tournament style with devastating soul reads that end his runs. Sometimes he gets short stacked waiting for AA and shit and gets dealt hands and/or flops and then wins. He never opens his range really in any meaningful way as the blinds rise. You HAVE to be stealing blinds imo to be consistent in tourneys.
Given one month to study and prepare, who do you have in a heads-up poker match?
- Phil Hellmuth
- clovis8
0 voters
This was an ego play more than anything.
Phil Has fuck you money so he’s not really motivated in that way and no amount of studying modern concepts will put him in the creme de la creme of Mtt players.
It’s like a hearts player trying to shoot the moon every game.
1 Like
Was looking for a poker thread on 2p2 but just found this. My lawyer caught the cop lying on the stand. I have talked to the lawyers again in the last few years and they say that they still tell the story of that court case hahaha.
This is such a bad take.
The game has surpassed him for sure.
Before the the learning curve hit modern analytics and adder all, some of the things Phil was doing were actually ahead of their time.
ETA: let me clarify by saying that Phil was always an underdog in games with other pros especially cash.
He’s one of the goats for large field mtts. He has instances where he played a more modern style ie his euro bracelet.
He’s also really good at using his image to make strange well timed bluffs other players would have a hard time getting away with ie his Wpt final table that Art won.
Gto has rekt him for sure.
Also he’s a mega douche.
That’s quite the ringing endorsement. 
Ok I’ll concede he is better than average at large field mtts filled with terrible players.
Poker is an overall game. Overall he is not good.
You can’t be objectively bad at the math of poker but be good at poker. It just doesn’t work that way.
He is also a huge asshole at the table the single worst sin of a poker player.
Lol to people defending him.
I haven’t found the “hu for rolls” setting in my solver. I’ll let you know when I do.
I would snap play him heads up if I got some time to prep.
As someone who came up the ranks specifically applying a lot of math stuff, hard disagree on this. Especially in live, deep stacked games.
He absolutely doesn’t have fuck you money. Have you read his biography? He is not nearly as rich as it’s seems you think he is.
I’d snap bet negraneau has a larger net worth.
Who had a better career, Hellmuth or Dwan?
In tournaments you can. I have friends ranging from losing dozens of thousands to small winners and still think they are elite and math is for losers.
Well, if you take that as true, then Hellmuth knows the math. The results are there.
wat?
I’m saying variance makes people that are bad at math who are winners can think math is overrated. Was it that unclear?
2 Likes