I need to work through this for tournaments because I don’t play a lot of them and haven’t done any work on a spot like this. So, indulge me.
I’m going to start by modeling UTG’s range as AK, QQ-TT, one combination each of AA and KK, and two combinations of 72o to simulate a spew range.
So, first I would start by coming up with possible ranges for CO. A range with slightly over 50% equity heads up vs UTG’s range is something along the lines of 99+, AK, AQ. We’ll call that a medium range. I’d personally need a tight range more like JJ+, AK to play in that spot. Let’s say a loose range is something like top 20% of hands (according to ProPokerTools).
My thought is that against a soft field, you should probably fold hands that are close to break even because you really can find a better spot later. So, I’d think about what the break-even point is, chipEV wise against various ranges, and play tighter than that. Let’s say I want to play hands with 40% equity or more.
If CO has a tight range, then I should only call with AA/KK. If CO has a medium range, I can add QQ, but not any unpaired hands. Against the loose range, I can add JJ, but AKs is still not good enough. If I am holding out for 40% equity, AKs isn’t even good enough vs the UTG range and a CO random hand. It does become playable if I drop my threshold down to 35%.
I guess the basic question I need to answer is just how much equity I need to call. I don’t play a LAG style and I don’t try to run over the table when I have a big stack, so flipping to get a lot of chips is not as valuable to me as it is to other players. Because there are blinds and antes, break-even is less than 33.3%, but because the bet is huge compared to the initial pot, I can probably get away with treating that as practically the same. Anyways, I prefer using fudge factors that err on the side of playing too tight.
So, if I have a scenario where I need 32% to break even, chip EV-wise, how should I adjust that? With a weaker table/field, I should be tighter. If there are ICM considerations, when we are closer to or in the money, I should be tighter. If I think I am playing well, I should be tighter.
In the past, I would often be willing to flip because I was happy jumping into a cash game, but now I think I need to be more protective of my stack.
I feel more comfortable thinking about these ranges in a live tournament. I have no idea how these ranges change in a $2 tournament vs $5, $15, or $100 buy-ins.
Anyways, that’s enough of me spewing thoughts on tournaments. I think I just need to put these down somewhere to get me pointed in the right direction.
