At the time i thought im checking 100% there. But i agree i can probably continue with combo draws (i dont think i ever have air there)
one more sizing question. Game is 5 handed now, about to end. 50 straddle on. I open 34dd otb to 200, straddle calls.
Flop 643ssd. He check, I bet 200 he calls. Turn Td he checks I bet 600 he calls. River 3x. He checks I bet 2500. He tanks for a long time cuts out chips and ends up folding.
Do you think it’s a good board to go for a overbet river? I thought he probably can only beat a bluff so might as well go really big and make it more likely i have a missed fd. Not sure.
I think it’s a mistake to change up your sizing pattern in a spot where he has K hi or something a lot of the time.
Just signals to him something is off instead of letting him get creative.
Yes, it is good to overbet river when your opponent very rarely has a strong hand and you have many strong hands (even something like AT is really strong here) and many air hands.
Math Dissertation Justifying This (spoilered to not burn people’s eyes):
I “knew” the above from received wisdom, but I wanted to work out the math for myself with simplified assumptions. First, assume three types of hands only: air, bluff catchers, and nuts. Also assume we always have air or nuts, and Villain always has a bluff catcher (I know he can have a busted draw in this particular spot, but I don’t think it changes the analysis much).
Now let’s say we use a bet sizing of X into a pot of size P with our Y combos of nuts. Then we need to balance with Z combos of air to make Villain indifferent to folding vs calling. If you set the EV of his call equal to 0, you will find that Z = XY/(P+X). For example, if you use a pot sized bet, then X = P and you get Z = PY/(P+P) = Y/2, meaning you should bluff half as often as you value bet with this sizing.
We can now calculate how much money we make from our range collectively.
- Of course we make 0 from all the air hands we check back.
- We make P+X from each of the Y combos of nuts that Villain calls off against.
- We make P whenever Villain folds to our bet.
- We lose X from each of the Z combos of bluffs that Villain snaps off.
In total, we make a Total of Y(P+X)(%VCall) + (Y+Z)P(%VFold) - ZX(%VCall). Substituting in the equation we got for Z above and simplifying gives us YP(1+X/(P+X)). Notice that %VFold and %VCall disappear in the simplified Total. This is precisely because we have the correct number Z of bluff combos to balance our range for this sizing, so we’re indifferent to what Villain decides.
Anyway, now we can see the correct bet size. P is a constant, Y is a constant, and so the only variable in the Total is X. But it’s pretty easy to see (through graphing or derivatives if you know them) that YP(1+X/(P+X)) is a strictly increasing function of X. In other words, the larger you bet, the more money you make, so the best size is all-in.
LDO Caveat #1: To emphasize, the analysis is predicated on the overbetting range having a balanced proportion of bluffs to value bets (the right Z for your Y). It’s not a good strategy to blast off huge river bluffs every single time you put Villain on medium strength or conversely only nut peddle this size.
LDO Caveat #2: There were simplifying assumptions here, so it’s important to be mindful of things like Villains usually having some traps, so probably going all-in for 15x pot is still a bad play lol. But like 2 and 3x pot river bets can be much more profitable than “normal” size, and this hand is a good example of that.
1 Like
1/2 PLO at Rivers Des Plaines
Straddle on the button. Hero makes a lose call with 9765ss in the SB. After straddle checks, we end up with a 6 way pot.
Flop is 9 
4 
3 Hero, with no flush draw, leads for 50. BB calls. CO calls.
Turn is 4 
Hero bets 100.
1 Like
I’m still at the table but had to post this one.
I am not in hand.
It’s 1/3 effective $900
Preflop raise to $15 reraise 50. Call. Hu
Flop A69dd. Bet 60 call
Turn Kc
Bet 40. Raise to 120. Allin and guy says he will run it twice.
Other villain tanks for like 2 min finally shows kk and tanks for 5 more min and folds.
Lolololol
Add to the wtf-ness. There is a $117k bad beat so in the one in a million it’s set over set he has one out to bad beat.
Yeah but the thing is you don’t need to or want to have a balanced overbet range in most of live poker, unless you’re playing in very very competitive games. Maybe this game is, I dunno. We didn’t get a read on villain, but I’m guessing villain massively overfolds to an overbet here. Overbets in live poker work best against weak passives as bluffs, and fish when you have it, plus stronger players who think you’re full of it. You literally do not need balance is the vast majority of games, well at least the ones I play.
Poker is so weird.
I just played the worst session in forever and none of it was bad beats. I played so poorly. It was like I was looking outside my body and being like “wtf dude why are you making this play” over and over !
Lol poker. Lol me.
I think this is a spot where you need to forget about what you’re betting range is and think about what their calling range is. Everyone love balance etc but these exact spots where you have a set and the top card pairs you just need to keep barrelling and hope they’ve got a ten. Losing out on some tiny amount of equity when they pair up on the river or decide to bluff (does anyone ever do this in this spot?) Is nothing compared to the utter world ending disaster if you don’t stack a ten here. No one is calling with a ten on the flop and folding it on the turn. So just keep betting imo.
2 Likes
but no one is checking a Ten there. I’m out of position.
I’ve seen lots of people double check trips in this spot they love to trap. And they’re using the same faulty logic that you are (I’m not getting called ever cos I look so strong etc).
Bruce double checks a 10 there 90% of the the time.
tbh i don’t see this as being the reason to bet. i think the reason would be to get more value out of draws that are gonna try and hit so they can ‘stack’ me as i look strong
we’re playing fairly deep so they might consider their draws more valuable and hence why i should bet.
They didn’t double check though right? You raised pre, they called and then you cbet flop and they called again. They could definitely have Tx in this spot, or random flush draws/str8 draws/whatever. I agree with geewhysee; in this spot just keep blasting and hope one of them has a T or a stubborn pair/draw and lets you take them to value town. It certainly looks strong to take a bet/bet line on this board against a million opponents but they’ll probably pay you anyway if they have something good enough. Plus you balance out your bluffs/semibluffs by betting the effective nuts here.
i meant that they would bet their T anyway when I check, so getting value out of Tx will be easy. But i did miss out of a lot of value against draws which is why i agree i should bet.
2 Likes
Disagree. I think plenty of Tx will only give you 1 street if you check Turn. Something like T9o will check back UI for sure.
With three players on turn, I think a T is unlikely to check as that gives a FD a free chance to hit.
New hand anyway. Fascinating spot IMO
2/3 pub game in Australia that is a 500 Max. Super deep vs bad bar players so I always buy in full as by far best player in game (I’m top 10 in state, no one else bothers with these games)
Straddle to 6 is on. A fish makes it 20 playing 500 utg. He has probably 25% of hands maybe slightly more.
Another fish shoves 125 utg3 he has 20% of hands and maybe some reduced amount of AA and KK
I’m CO with AQo and a 700 stack. There are 3 covering stacks behind me. I call???
Fish call as well. I expect him to call about 12% maybe some more.
Flop: 375: 632
He looks like he want to bet but checks. I check
Turn. 8
Same again about a 20 sec tank from him. I check
River Q
He bets 60 with 320 back
We???
I think he has all sets. His willingness to bet f and t should discount some Qx but who knows, morons gunna moron.
If the guy that jammed for 125 is jamming as wide as you described then I think I just ship it pre and try to get HU with him as a big favorite. Calling seems really bad here since it opens you up to getting squeezed pretty wide by one of the people behind you if they’re paying attention to the dynamics.
As played flop and turn checks seem fine. With his river bet it seems like he’s blocking with some kind of weak 1 pair hand like a pp <QQ or A6 or some stupid shit like that. It’s possible he could have you smoked with 54 or a set or maybe even 86 if he’s opening that wide. If you think he’s bad enough to call it off with those 1 pair hands then ship it, otherwise I think calling is okay.
I might check behind on the turn there with a ten if I thought it likely the preflop raiser had an overpair that he would fold to a turn bet but bet or call with on the river. If I think they still fold that overpair to a river bet, then I bet the turn to deny them the two-outer that is the only reason they give action on the river.
Against a good player, a bet-bet-bet line isn’t guaranteed to be called on the river by a ten. In hero’s spot, I bet small, blocking bet sized like I would with the overpairs and draws I bet the turn with.