Well I normally like to reraise pre there, but the fish was spewing really hard…
You believe villain thinks hero checks behind on the river with top pair hands instead of betting for value and trying to get called by a bluff-catcher?
Should villain have a bluffing range leading out on the river? Hero seems to be taking a potential pot control line with top pair, so a river bluff should be an overbets to make those hands uncomfortable about calling.
Villain is described as a crusher, so if he isn’t he likely to be the sort of player who has both bluffs and value hands with this bet?
Was it a mistake to either bet so big or maybe even to bet at all on the flop?
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my streak continues, in the last week and a half I’ve had 7 1st place cashes in my daily home game and just took down 1/13 tonight. last night won against 3 other people. woooo
it’s like every single sklansky buck I’ve lost in the last few months has come to me all in 1 week, i sucked out and held up so many gross spots
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I think villain is expecting hero to check behind river with about 100% of his turn checking range. When hero opens the door with a (surprise) bet, I think he takes it as an invitation to commit larceny. If villain has us beat here, he’s either much worse than we gave him credit for, or truly world class.
Solvers like a lot of aggression with AK but even they find spots to call with the hand. It’s an exploitative strategy that seems unlikely to be disastrous against many lineups.
You think villain expects hero to never bluff the river or to bet the turn with all bluff candidates? I think villain would expect AK/AQ to be part of hero’s turn checking range.
I had a huge hero river call tonight with AK high
No idea how live crushers play now, so take fwiw, but I think you should check back the river as played (turn bet would have been fine). People will complain that it’s weak but if you think about his preflop range and the hands in that range that check call on the flop, this is a bad runout. You do miss value from AJ, but it’s not necessarily full weight in his 3betting range, and he of course can have AQ, QQ, AA, A5s, A4s with this line, so you need him to call with worse hands than AJ, like KK and JJ. But you also open the door to get c/r bluffed, which you should just lose to because it is a fold.
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I’d probably still probably call, youre pretty capped here to what you have and villain shouldn’t have a ton of suited wheel aces because of both pre and flop. Wouldn’t be surprised to see same hand.
Am I wrong in thinking the decision on whether to call a check-raise should have been mostly made before betting the river?
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I mangled this hand on basically every street besides the flop, I did end up calling and he had 10h Jh. I agree this river is a check, I hated myself for betting it, I was fortunate villain perceived me as nittier than I am.
No. If villain has a non-nut hand with value, he can take a check-call line fairly easily to defend against bluffs. Why raise if you’re bluff-catching?
My argument is that for villain to check raise river he either has to have the nuts, or really close to it, or absolutely nothing. From villains chair as first to act on the river, it would be criminal to lose value by checking the near nuts. He’s just not doing it if he’s a crusher. That leaves his range as almost entirely air, unless we misread how strong of a player he is.
As played, I disagree. We’re under-repped, and we can’t miss value just cause we’re scared of stressful situations. He can call with a ton of hands that we beat.
My argument is that villain should check strong hands if hero bets all hands that would call a bet and sometimes bluffs if checked to and that this scenario is more likely than villain believing hero checks behind almost 100% of time. Villain should have AK in hero’s range and should expect hero to bet that hand.
I might be more inclined towards your thinking if the fishy player hadn’t called pre. Betting into that player on the flop should narrow hero’s range.
Hero’s turn check loudly states, “I have a medium strength hand that I’ve gone into pot control mode on. It’s not strong enough to be bothered charging all those draws. Please let me have a cheap showdown”. Hero’s hand is face-up. His entire range is medium strength vulnerable hands. Crusher knows this. He 100% expects hero to check river.
Edit: He also knows hero is strong enough to have to call a river bet. His hands are tied and he can’t bluff, until hero opens the door.
I just don’t know what to tell you. As a poker player, if you’re oop on the river with a value hand, and villian has checked behind on the turn, if you’re routinely checking the river you should probably find a new hobby. Build model airplanes or something, poker’s not for you. A good player just does not miss value there. Ever.
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If true, then hero should fold medium-strength hands to a river bet because villain is never bluffing and only betting hands that are good value bets against a pot-control range.
You should be checking enough strong hands to protect your check-raise range or else you shouldn’t check-raise bluff.
Against this guy, I probably do fold if he bets pot on the river.
Edit for clarity: I’m probably not folding AK specfically, but I’m folding a big chunk of the range that I can have here, so maybe I was off base saying villain’s hands were tied for a lead out bluff.
When villain checks behind on turn I don’t have a check-raise range. I have check-fold, check-call, bet-fold, bet-call, bet-raise ranges. There’s nothing in the check-raise box, bluffs or otherwise.
Edit: I actually challenge you (or anyone) to construct a hand history where your best play is to check-raise river oop, after the turn goes check check. I don’t think it can be done. (except as a bluff of course, which means against a thinking player, the bluff can’t be the best play)