I screwed up so bad last night. I probably shouldn’t play when I’m having a fast day. Brain no worky. But the Chiefs won in exciting fashion, so I was in a good mood.
HP $230 - 50k prize pool - 30 places pay, we’re on the stone bubble at 31 players. Villain is a decent kid who can bluff, but given the situation and we have roughly equal stacks - probably is not.
Blinds 5000/10000-10000a, I have 250k chips for slightly above average stack. I open for 25k with AhQc in LJ. Only BB calls as expected. I was ready to call if one of the 100k stacks in between pushed.
Flop QsJc4s. I bet 50k into 65k pot. Maybe too high since draws are still calling and I’m pricing out action from worse Qs. But given the stone bubble I just wanted to end the hand.
Turn Kc - check, check
River 5c - he bets 125k, I somehow get it in my head there are 4 clubs on the all black board, and call. He has T9o. Getting old is real kids. Don’t do it.
So now I’m crippled down to about 50k chips and of course the one time they don’t want to pay the bubble. So we go hand for hand for like half an hour with 4 tables and finally someone busts. Could have been worse. $405 is better than $0.
I understand the motivation here, but in these tournaments I think assuming 3 bet=the nuts is not a bad heuristic even if it’s occasionally wrong. The solution, of course, is to have the best cards. Fact is, though, sometimes you get crap cards and you gonna lose if you fold and you gonna lose if you play.
You buried the lede. However, I do agree this is a push and if you lose to QJ or a river flush, that’s poker (then again, 50k is pretty much a push here). I think a turn push is probably justified if you aren’t folding river–make drawers pay. Players love flush draws in these tourneys, and they often call with them even though the odds are wrong. If you have an M (bb+sb+antes) of 15 or under and hit that flop with AQ or KQ, then I think you need to push. When I’ve chipped up in this things at least half the time it’s when I’m called by drawers who miss.
50k is after I called and lost the hand. I had 250k to start the hand. If I shoved the flop I’d be shoving 225k into a 65k pot. Seems like just asking to let villain play perfectly, especially when QJ is dead in his defend range, but maybe it’s an option.
It’s an interesting question in theory. If villian were me I’d “play perfectly” and fold a FD. However, I’d swear you can’t bet people off FDs or OESDs by betting 10x pot. It’s great to hit sets on rainbow boards and bleed opponents down, but it just seems like a lot of chips I’ve gotten in tourneys is from overbetting to punish draws and getting called.
I forget what garbage I went out on, but it was like calling a bet that put me all in with huge odds when I had like mid pair and a draw. The guy flipped up this A-rag and said “thanks for calling.” To which I replied, honestly, “I would have called if your cards were face up” (which they basically were). I don’t think he understood.
I sent off another batch of hands to Jonathan Little to review. Last time he turned it around in a day. So I keep refreshing my inbox. It’s like waiting for Santa to come. I’ll let you know what he thinks of the 97o hand.
Just randomly, and I forget which book discusses it, maybe Harrington but probably Kill Phil, but there’s a real focus on “big cards” and getting heads up, and also, I believe, a general sense that you want to see 5 cards spread if you call or open raise with big cards, so it’s generally better to get all in, preferably where you might not get called.
I think it’s Harrington who discusses the “gap” concept a lot, where you need much better cards to call/raise than to open raise.
Incidentally, in live tourneys it seems like the ranges are often like 2 cards lower than in a cash game. Like AJ (an evil hand) in a tourney plays like AK in cash game, and TT in a tourney is akin to QQ in a cash game. The “forced” play creates some interesting dynamics. Also, straights and flushes are great in tourneys, but it’s better to aim for them in cash games.
If you really feel like you need pay for advice on the 97o hand I don’t know what else to tell you. You seem like one of those dudes who sits there and plays fine for awhile then goes full idiot out of nowhere for absolutely no reason.
By the it gets to open SB in my tourneys we’re down to like 10BB territory. When someone completes I usually just shove and haven’t been called yet. They don’t know how to shove properly so they often just complete with a hand that they don’t want to shove. I had a guy with 8BBs turn 22 face up after I shoved over his SB complete. Of course if they complete a second time I’m a lot more cautious.
