Call everything here wtf
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At 1/3 also? Or is it because Vs will raise jam smaller flushes for value.
Because he could have all sorts of random shit it’s 1/3 not hellmuth
The more passive villain is, the more likely he only has nutted hands and zero random shit in his range.
What a shock Bruce is arguing for the weakest passive line.
This is a call 100% of the time. Villains range has all kinds of value you beat, bluffs, Ahx hands.
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It’s one three
Yeah you can see like 910o there no heart sometimes.
If you have more of a read on villain fine, but you see will dead ass punts more often than value.
I’m not arguing for folding. I’m arguing that there’s a continuum. The more station-y a player is, the more likely a player is to only nutted hands. An absolute calling station has the same raising range as a complete nit in this spot. The less station-y a player is, the more likely they can have worse value bets or bluffs or other stuff in their range.
Is there a sufficient sample size to place this particular player on that continuum? Maybe not, but I’m more interested in how to think about poker generally rather than focusing on specific hand histories.
Never would have known that without this post
Lots of 1/3 players use predictable, static strategies. It’s a leak to not try to see if you can recognize such players and makes exploitative calls or folds as the situation warrants.
Decent post. I think of I was at basically any 1/3 table for a few orbits I’d be quite confident in ranging villain better than “shrug they play 1/3 heres the action” obviously.
Those predictable strategies bit is true, but those predictable strategies make this a call the vast majority of the time
No, villain doesn’t. Unless he’s some random idiot which he could be which would make this a call, you’re smoked here against your average 1-3 - especially if he tanked for more than 3 secs on the turn.
But I think it’s important to think about what conditions are required for this to be a fold. If you figure it out off the table, then you don’t face a tortured decision when this comes up.
Is this a fold if villain is an old man you’ve seen limp-call preflop with AK and just call down after flopping TPTK?
Wildly disagree. Even FR NL doesn’t play that tight online, never mind live.
9vpip/7pfr FR online nits at least play different post flop in a lot of spots. 1/3 is home to scared money nl players. Assuming he isn’t some whale, think about what he shoves for value on the turn? An 80 bet is already heart pumping money to these guys and he 4x it. He wasn’t the Initial raiser here. What does he have and how often?
Was I too cute with my preflop bet-sizing here? Should I have checked the flop?
Live 2/5. I open UTG to 15. Two callers. Button makes it 100. I make it 265. Villain asks how much I have. (250). He calls. Flop is J95 rainbow. I jam. He folds QQ face up.
I wouldn’t say most players at 1/3 are scared money at all. They’re just dumb money, making dumb mistakes.
How you’re describing them is nut flushes only. That’s just A4hh, A7hh, A8hh, A10hh, A5hh. I’m discounting AQhh and AKhh.
fwiw I think jamming any of these hands is pretty bad ott, but I don’t expect good play at 1/3.
If you think they can never have a straight, 810hh, 78hh, 74hh, 75hh, or a set…I’ve just never played those kinds of games and I have thousands of hours playing 1/2 and 2/5 live beating both at over 15bb/hr.
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Unless you have a whole lot more information, I don’t see how this isn’t a call.
Sure he might have a better flush, but there’s so many other possible hands (straight, lesser flush, set two pair, semi-bluff with naked Ah) that you’re beating.
You have a jack and a two and hit like the 99.5 percentile turn. If you got unlucky, you got unlucky. You HAVE to call here.
I think they can have lower flushes you mentioned a small amount of the time that felt committed on the turn. I put a str8 at almost never and set at slightly above, a lot of players are calling the turn with a set when they got a good amount left behind for the river. I think very few smooth call the turn with the nuts and most tank for some time before shoving turn with the better hand. But that’s me.
But I do think it’s close and the player would decide it for me.