1/3 $425 effective
Villain is the button who straddles $6
Folds to me +2. QThh raise to $25
3 callers.
Flop: 7d8h10d
Hero raises to $35. Folds to button who raises to $80. Here calls
Turn: Qs
Hero checks. Button bets $100
Hero moves all in for like $225
Ya tons of low stakes players never raise Ak
I probably check that flop.
Yeah seems close on flop in both spots. Leaning toward agreeing with checking initially. Vs the raise as played, you really have to make a read right there. Villain is raising using a non-bluffy sizing in a multiway pot that was raised pre, its showing a lot of strength. Most people don’t have weak top pair or weak draws there. We’re toast against sets or a straight, and only 50/50 vs strong draws so I’ll lean toward fold.
Turn is just automatic.
Checking that flop is just terrible.
You flopped huge for your hand. Why on earth would you check?
You so likely have the best hand. Bet.
The biggest mistake nearly everyone makes in poker is not betting their hands enough. Stop trying to find passive lines on every hand history. It’s so massively -ev.
You always have such an extreme response. Checking is fine OOP against three opponents. QhTh is behind the continuing range of any even moderately sensible live fish. From Equilab:
| MP2 | 46.14% | 43.84% | 2.31% | QhTh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP3 | 53.86% | 51.55% | 2.31% | 77+, ATs-A8s, KTs-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, ATo-A8o, KTo-K9o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o |
(ETA: Taking Aces and Kings out of their range doesn’t change much. Makes it 47.5 to 52.5, still in their favor).
Top pair on a wet board is not a great hand to bet multi-way OOP. It’s not even an auto-bet heads up.
I think one of the biggest mistakes everyone makes is making bad c-bets out of position.
You should probably be doing a shitload of checking on that flop because it sucks for your range and it’s pretty good for his cold calling range. Also, I wouldn’t consider T87r a “huge” flop for QTs.
ETA: also idk what the limpers’ ranges are but the fact that this is 4w makes a check even more likely to be correct.
I’m probably betting that flop too often in LLSNL otb but probably closer to perfectly balanced oop. Probably something like 0% betting if first to act, 20% if 2nd, 30% if 3rd but close to 100% otb.
Very easy hand to play IP, quite difficult oop.
Strongly disagree. My line isn’t extreme. It’s correct assuming we are talking live poker.
As you show it’s close running hot cold. Given the default style of 98% of low limit players is extreme passivity betting here is the right play.
Otherwise what the line? Check call? If you are going to call one of the players bets just bet.
I’d bet and if I get raised I’d strongly consider just folding. People bet fold far too little in these games.
At these limits, the right play is almost always the aggressive play. The vast majority of the field will be desperately trying to find the passive line in every situation.
Obviously we should fold to a raise the majority of the time.
A flop like 7810r hits limping ranges in LLNSL way more than it hits the range of a player who has raised preflop. And then in these spots our range becomes quite narrow when we bet, because we bet basically 0 A high combos, 0 Broadway combos and it’s basically just sets, overpairs and 10x combos.
Being passive with the bottom of a continuing range isn’t terrible. Most players will probably make more money if they cut the bottom 5% or so of their betting ajd continuing ranges out entirely. These are the hands losing $.
In this hand we literally turn the best card in the deck and still aren’t positive our hand is good. That is not a good spot, and makes it not a great flop bet.
Players who get super-aggressive with one-pair hands in multi-way pots tend to get wrecked when I play these stakes. I’m not even sure I agree with preflop here.
I don’t know if I would call a bet if I check, if I didn’t have a backdoor flush draw. Probably not a large one unless I have a physical tell. But you should have a check-calling range in this hand and QTs seems like a plausible choice to put in that bucket.
I don’t think it’s a great choice to bet with because there aren’t a lot of good cards to bet the turn if you get called, especially if you get multiple callers. I certainly don’t bet OOP without some idea of which turn cards I am planning to bet if I get at least one caller.
I think one of the key lessons from game theory and the solver era is that people c-bet way too much ten years ago. While that behavior can exploit certain types of players, it can itself be exploited and the answer isn’t necessarily to out-aggro them.
I’m not worried about LLSNL exploiting me cbetting too often.
I’m checking a lot here on this flop, kinda depends if it’s more garden variety bad regs or more serious droolers.
There’s so many bad regs that will pay you off on a clean runout or might try some bluffs because they think nobody would ever check top pair
I’m curious if anyone has ever studied the psychology behind spamming emoticons at a player on big river decisions.
For example, the pot is $120 and I shove my last $115, then after 5 seconds with no call, start sending the falling asleep emoticon 3-4 times, as if insinuating the player is taking awhile. Does this make the opponent less likely to call, more likely to call, or will it have no predictable effect?
If the answer is 1 or 2, then it could be very profitable to use this strategy for only bluffs or only value bets. Obviously this would only work on unfamiliar opponents, but I play on some sites where villains are recycled fairly often and could work.
Finally, would you say this type of thing (if it were proven that it could work) could be considered an angle shoot / unethical or would it be considered fair play?
Button had 69 off suit. Fun.
Would you start needling an opponent like this in a card room after only a 5-10 second think?
Unlikely, because it would make you look like a douchebag.
Don’t be a douchebag.
The null hypothesis should be it has an effect. I’d guess it would influence some players and others would ignore it. As for if it is fair play of course it is. It is a legal use of the chat and no different than speech play live which I use all the time.