Yeah it seems like a pretty terrible play. Especially against durrr.
The river overbet seems like a polarizing bet when there are straight and flush draws that missed, so there are plenty of bluffs in Daniels’ range. I wonder if a bet that looks more like a value bet would fold out more bluff-catcher hands, but you still have to bet enough so that hands which fold to an all-in won’t be motivated to consider bluff-raising as an option.
Judging 3-barrell frequencies on a single hand seems pretty redundant. If he never 3 barrels on missed draws then he won’t get paid when he actually has a hand there. Like he could def be over bluffing and Dwan can be over calling but we have no idea based on that hand and having basically not seen Dwan play for like a decade.
The problem with poker at high levels (and I think Jake Daniels is a high stakes pro, but I’m not sure if he’s a good one) is that pretty much every play you see can be justified and the leaks come from over doing a particular action. It’s pretty boring to watch in that sense.
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I just lost a 2k pot with TT vs 26 on AT2 flop 
I am very very sad
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Outside of Vegas, I don’t think that a backpack means that much. Most places, a ton of the “recs” are also regulars who put in long sessions and its nice to have a place to put your sweatshirt / waterbottle / drugs / chargers / rebuy chips.
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I can’t stop 4betting all of a sudden.
Online or live?
Don’t think this is right theoretically. Tom’s calling range ott should be mostly made hands (he has like 80 combos of 9x), so if he calls his entire made hand range otr, he’s calling too much.
But he should be folding hands like JJ/TT before he folds his 9x hands.
Probably but T9 also blocks the T. You should have two diamonds to call the turn on a draw, and there are only 55 combos of two diamonds in the deck, some of which fold the turn, others raise at some point before the river, and still others make top pair Q otr. Even if you fold TT-JJ (12 combos), you should still be folding some 9x.
Been screwing around online playing 5-25 dollar buyin games. I’ve run 100 to 1.1k doing that, making money on Biden on election night, and losing betting sports.
Early hand at the table, don’t know much about the pfr. I have 25, he has 30 or so.
UTG min raise to 0.5, folds to me on button. I call with KdTs. Blinds call.
Flop: KcJs7h (~2)
Checks to me I bet 1. UTG calls rest fold.
Turn Tc (~4)
I Bet 2.78 and call
River 6h (~9.5)
I bet 6.49 raise to 15.84.
Call shove or fold
Think I had like 4 more behind
I’ve honestly forgotten what I’m supposed to not fold in this spot.
Six handed.
Tilted villain shoves blind UTG for around 70bb. Hero is UTG+1 with 150bb. Two players behind have me covered, but not by much. The rest have around 100bb.
The table will generally play too tight if I call. There’s at least one guy behind me who won’t overcall with AK.
What’s the worst hand you call with?
Don’t have a calling range, shove AJ+, 88+. It’s a tad tight but I’m assuming it’s like nl200 not nl10.
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At that stake I tend to default to “THey’Re NeVEr BLufFinG” when they x/r the river unless I have a read that they’re a spewy whale/maniac. So absent any reads and given that he raised to some weird amount <ai I go ahead and fold it assuming his most likely hands are 98s and AQ. Fwiw I also fold pre, but I play 3b or fold in every position except the BB. Even if you’re going to have a flatting range against UTG on the button I’d imagine KTo probably isn’t in it, but i’ve never really studied it so idk.
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Incongruent lines from PFRs are practically always stronger than 2 pr.
You can call and take a note but I think it’s burning money
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Meant 4 left over the bet.
I folded. They showed AQ.
Ranging this hand is bad because it weights all the hands equally. In reality straights are like 95% of the hands that take this line.
Also of note is the screamingly obvious raise size is not designed to elicit folds.
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Agreed. Felt like the world’s most nutted range ever.
Been figuring things out after not playing forever. I still got some skills. I’m to the point now where I would need to actually keep a database and run some queries to find leaks and improve. I think I’ll donk it up on NCAAF instead.
Loose passive 2/5 game, pretty deep, I have 1400, the villain (BB) covers. He’s a decent reg, def not a fish, not overly aggro. A decent reg in this game means you just play ABC and win fish monies.
I limp As2s UTG, mid position raises to 20, a bunch of calls I call. 5 to the flop.
Flop K J 6 all spades, jackpot.
SB leads 50, BB calls, I call.
Turn 10s, damn. That should kill my action.
BB bets 150, hmm going hard with the Qs? I call.
River, he ships all in, about $1200 for me to call. Waaaat.
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ya i’m not folding