I said why in that post NBZ. Your equity drastically goes down on that turn. You’re also out of position which is going to make it much harder to get paid when you hit.
The value of your play here is roughly:
Exp = fold equity + equity if called + some implied odds value
Given your description, your implied odds value is low. Not zero, but it’s small. Can we completely ignore it? Probably not but it’s definitely smaller.
Now, given your description, your fold equity is unchanged. You’re essentially saying he cbs the flop and turn 100%. That’s probably not true (it’s probably less), but going by your assumptions there’s no change.
Your equity when called is what makes the difference. You’re going from roughly 35-50% to 0-35% on the turn. That’s a big fucking deal. Coming back to up to the equation:
E = fold equity (same) + equity when called (~way down) + implied (about the same)
I also severely question your read, but that’s besides the point. If it’s actually true you need to be raising way more than you do.
He keeps recklessly barreling all the time, but he’s also expected to fold like his entire range on the turn? I mean if this is the player specific read, I mean not much point in posting the hand here
Had a dream the other night I was playing at a NLH table WAY above what stakes should be playing in. 2 all ins ahead of me preflop, think don’t give me a hand. Look at my hand and it is KK. So I call, a lot of people ended up calling. But basically it was JJ v QQ v AQ v some random suited connectors v my KK. Ace on the flop gg. Fucking getting bad beat in a dream.
No joke, and I don’t know what spurred that dream on. Haven’t played live poker in a long time.
I was thinking about the idea of not being over-aggressive with good draws on the flop.
One of the more useful ideas I picked up from reading The Mathematics of Poker was not automatically betting and raising with combo draws on the flop in NLHE. My live results got better when I slowed down in those spots.
Fair enough, but you could extend that to the turn as well and keeping more options open for the river. Getting into big bloated oop pots with draws is generally not where you want to be! Unless you know theyre gonna fold their lol entire range to your check raises, in which case you should be check raising lot more with air :)
If I thought there was a path to getting it in on the flop, I would have raised the flop. There wasn’t, but I could get it in on the turn and I didn’t think there were enough good river cards for me to bluff at if I check called both flop and turn, so I decided to call on the flop with the intention of check-raising the turn. I play it differently if stacks are either shorter or deeper.
For players like Bruce on stars they are usually green tagged with a note “just clicks buttons”
Like, his thought process actually was “this player opens very wide from btn and cbets at a very high frequency. With that in mind, I will flat a 4x open 60bb eff with K3s and then check call a flop bet when we have a range advantage and a ton of equity.”
What.
Last 2 days I broke even on stars, then couldn’t sleep, played for 30 min each on my phone and made about 15 buyins at 1/2z.
Today was fun having two players get 3b by me, get a dry axx flop and still potting into my aaxx.
there’s something i don’t get about your table descriptions. not necessarily this hand.
you mention how abc TAG poker isn’t applicable in your tables because people aren’t calling multiple streets with top pair or weaker hands anymore. yet the bluffs you are planning and posting are always ‘elaborate’ c/r on scary boards.
if people fold to aggression AND you claim your edge is coming from non-showdown winnings, why are you not being aggressive?
Over-aggression at these tables leads to running into good hands and spewing. The guys who come in, raise a lot preflop because they can’t stand limped pots, and bet-bet-bet just get completely wrecked by people who call down.
My edge doesn’t come from non-showdown winnings. My edge comes from building multi-way pots that often go to showdown. This leads me to not iso-ing pretty much at all.
I underbluff. The hands I post are me trying to figure out how to open my game up with more bluffs. I’m not posting the standard hands where I bet something like 1/3 pot on the flop and, based on my opponent’s reaction, bet 2/3 pot on the turn and take it down.
I just don’t see c/r as elaborate. I started out playing limit and a check-raise is an important weapon that you can’t win without. I do it more than other people in big bet games, but also seek to do it with more than just nutted hands. When I consider my options, lines that include a c/r are always considered. But if I post a hand where I make a c/r bluff, that might be my only one for the weekend.
but tbf this is on me. at this point I’m not sure what you are trying to get out of the poker discussions. it seems none of the advice and explanation offered are of any use to you.
I’m trying to work out my own ideas about poker. I think that aggression is over-valued by people who came of age in poker during a certain era where aggression was rewarded and I tend to make life at the table miserable for some of those people if they don’t adjust to how I’m playing.
While I don’t do solvers, I am familiar with their outputs and have a sense of the shape of what they recommend. For a hand like K3s in the BB against a button raise, I think they say to call, maybe with an occasional 3bet mixed in. Certainly, 3bet might be the maximally exploitative play against some opponents.
I spend more time thinking about hands where I am OOP, where I don’t have the preflop initiative, or where the pot is multiway.
how is this post an answer to my question? so strange. I asked what you want out of the discussion (aka, talking to OTHER people, in this case us).
it appears you are looking to blog your thoughts and experiences and that’s fine, but you phrase it in a way that implies you are interested in a discussion to learn and that is certainly not the case.
I have no idea what that means, but it def implies that our collective experience playing poker for decades is irrelevant to whatever you are trying to achieve, so i suggest we stop replying to it.
fwiw I’m pretty sure you are expressing your ideas about poker perfectly. It’s not the expressing part you need to work on.
I pretty much exclusively play online so I can’t really speak to how it works live, but aggression is certainly the correct strategy online. Not blind aggression like cbetting every flop and barreling every runout, but being aggressive on the boards that are good for your range or bad for their range. Or if you have a specific read that a guy is weak tight then dialing it up even more. There’s a few exceptions where guys are absolute maniacs where you want to be more trappy, but even then it’s generally not great to put yourself in a position where you’re playing a guessing game against them all the time. The way you arrest someone’s aggression is through your own aggression in my experience. But again, I haven’t played live in a couple of years now so ymmv.
