And I believe the only source was Tommy Hearns?
Please write it in whatever accent everyone has or at least make it clear. Want the full experience.
Just pointing out how dishonest you are: this is the hunch Chan talked about having
https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1374332491310456838
Her hunch was that the theory sheâs been posting about for months was that the lab leak theory was going to gain steam in the coming week (she knew about the 60 minutes story). But of course you frame it as this:
When if you look at her twitter feed sheâs making a lot of detailed arguments.
Dude, youâre nitting incorrectly over terminology. zz said ânon-trivialâ. This does not mean the same thing as âlikelyâ.
When youâre dealing with something as critically important as the likelihood that a pandemic virus escaped from a lab the usual 95% confidence interval goes out of the window in the same way that you wouldnât get in an airplane that had a 5% chance of crashing.
Even a few percent likelihood is enough to cause alarm, and thatâs what I think zz meant by ânon-trivialâ.
2 Likes
The team investigated all possibilities, including one theory that the virus had originated at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The institute is the worldâs leading authority on the collection, storage and study of bat coronaviruses.
Former US President Donald Trump was among those who supported the theory that the virus might have escaped from a lab.
But a report by WHO and Chinese experts released on Tuesday and seen by AFP news agency, said the lab leak explanation was highly unlikely and the virus had probably jumped from bats to humans via another intermediary animal.
1 Like
7 Likes
DJT and Tedros finally on the same side.
1 Like
I mean
Although the team has concluded that a laboratory leak is the least likely hypothesis, this requires further investigation, potentially with additional missions involving specialist experts, which I am ready to deploy.
Sounds like what weâve been saying all along? What new data or hunches am I missing?
Only interesting new thing is this frozen food theory, which Iâd not heard of before but seems to be the third most likely explanation.
1 Like
Paging Dr Oz (from the J! Thread)
Now that youâve read that you could also try the article I linked yesterday about all the questions many scientists have that was published by the noted crackpot conspiracy mongers at MIT.
1 Like
1-5 % numbers have been thrown out as possible by us in the ânot likely crowdâ only to receive strong pushback from âit could be the lab crowdâ.
A definition of not likely was offered and rejected.
1 Like
Hey you can remember where this conversation started or not idc anymore
This is not actually true. You originally gave odds of 1000-1, which you said was âgenerous.â
That makes two of us.
Some low number. Not likely.
How do you know you didnât get it from a wet market?
21 Likes
That is the perfect end for the subject. Legit laughed out loud.
1 Like
Hadnât heard this before.
Although rare, laboratory accidents do happen, and different laboratories around the world are working with bat CoVs. When working in particular with virus cultures, but also with animal inoculations or clinical samples, humans could become infected in laboratories with limited biosafety, poor laboratory management practice, or following negligence. The closest known CoV RaTG13 strain (96.2%) to SARS-CoV-2 detected in bat anal swabs have been sequenced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The Wuhan CDC laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory.
They probably shouldnât have moved the airborne viruses using a giant fan to blow them to the new location. Live and learn!
10 Likes