If you are in the US and really dont want to catch Omicron, not like have some reduced risk but eliminate risk, then, yeah, you basically need to be in March 2020 mode. Like 10% of the population is infected and rising. Even if you take all precautions if you contact other people then you are at some risk of catching Omicron.
Most people have decided that isnt really tenable at this point for various and understandable reasons. I have some quibbles about your math (I dont think Delta was really chicken pox level), but yeah, if you absolutely cant get Omicron for whatever reason then you need to be sheltering in place March 2020 style right now.
I think this is right, but of course the payoffs from getting the virus have changed dramatically if you are vaccinated, so many people will rationally choose less mitigating behavior now compared to Spring 2020.
Well yeah, that would fall under various and understandable reasons. Thereās all sorts of in between precautions, like what kind of masks you wear and things, but infection level is so high that if you, for whatever reason, simply cant risk Omicron then it is shelter in place time. At least until the wave passes. Im not March 2020 mode at this point either, taking precautions but obviously am risking catching Omicron.
The R0 of omicron, amongst only fully vaccinated people, being higher then the R0 of chickenpox (around 10 IIRC) amongst unvaccinated for chickenpox people seems really unlikely given what weāve seen so far.
In a (perhaps fatal) effort to fend this off, does anyone here dispute that boosted people are at high risk of catching and transmitting Omicron currently? Especially without taking real precautions (avoid high risk situations, wear N95 masks, etc)?
Less. I believe the R0 of Omicron in a population of fully vaccinated and boosted people is less than the R0 of OG Wuhan. It is certainly less than being completely unvaxxed against Delta.
I think the rest of your post assumes that I was going to answer āmore,ā so Iām not bothering with it.
These comps are all sort of interesting thought exercises, but not super relevant. Thereās a fuck ton of Omicron out there and breakthroughs are fairly common. If you dont take precautions (including real masking) you are at risk of catching and transmitting at this point regardless of vax status.
I donāt think thatās fair. You guys seem to agree on most of the underlying facts, the exact R0 of Omega vs. Delta is just sort of nitting up around the details.
He thinks heās describing me, at least, and presumably also CN. See here:
Iāve said that being vaxxed and boosted offers substantial protection against omicron. I still think thatās true. I think itās true even if I also think that being vaxxed and boosted is more protection against delta than against omicron, and I also think itās true even if being vaxxed and boosted is somewhat less protection than 2 shots against Wuhan (something like 90% effectiveness vs. say 85% effectiveness). I think an 85% reduction in case rate compared to being unvaccinated is āsubstantial,ā but I guess thereās some standard out there that make that statement misinformation. I have always maintained that people who are vaxxed but who get infected can spread the virus, too.
Id be shocked if we find out being boosted reduces Omicron infection and transmission by 85%.
Its a little more complicated than putting it into one number, which I know you know, but just the anecdotal data (stuff like 100% attack rate on subs, sheer number of cases/breakthroughs, etc) make that seem unlikely to me.
Severe outcomes is different, would buy 85% or higher.
is there literally anyone in this thread who is arguing that it is safe to go to a big game or a crowded indoor venue right now? Because it sure as shit isnāt me. Part of the problem is I donāt think you understand what āsubstantial protectionā means in the context of vaccines. Itās relative to the risk if youāre unvaccinated. Itās not relative to some absolute risk. So two things can be true. The vaccines can still offer substantial protection against infection relative to someone who is not vaccinated and boostedā¦ and you can still recognize that itās dangerous to go to a public place right now, or to be unmasked, regardless of your vaccination status. You are arguing against charicatures that you have made up.
Edit: The only person in this thread who has taken the position you are arguing against is @cactus. So I guess there is literally a person in this thread who has taken the position you are arguing against.
I was thinking of some of the studies that suggest that wanes over time as well, much like the second shot did. Let me see if I can find a couple of them shortly. Which means that for the āaverageā boosted person it will end up being lower protection.
Bigger picture, to me at least, is that while I would probably agree with you that as a boosted person my risk of contracting COVID would be lower than it would be if unvaxxed for some activities, Id be hard pressed to argue there should be any differences in behavior and mitigation between boosted and unvaxxed right now. I think (hope) most of us agree on that.
This was like 45% after ten weeks, unclear if that was a bottom or not.
Maybe this is about me going to the theater a few weeks ago? I didnāt think that vaccines gave me us a guarantee of not contracting COVID. But I did believe that the combination of vaccines and masks for everyone in my family plus required vaccines and masks among all attendees would result in a very small risk of a severe negative outcome for any of us. So we chose to go because we thought the risk was worth taking. Around the same time, we chose not to go to a hockey game we already bought tickets for because we thought it would be somewhat riskier given othersā likely behavior, plus the benefit to going wasnāt as large.
Iām not sure how those decisions fit in to JTās point of view.