Less. I believe the R0 of Omicron in a population of fully vaccinated and boosted people is less than the R0 of OG Wuhan. It is certainly less than being completely unvaxxed against Delta.
I think the rest of your post assumes that I was going to answer “more,” so I’m not bothering with it.
These comps are all sort of interesting thought exercises, but not super relevant. There’s a fuck ton of Omicron out there and breakthroughs are fairly common. If you dont take precautions (including real masking) you are at risk of catching and transmitting at this point regardless of vax status.
I don’t think that’s fair. You guys seem to agree on most of the underlying facts, the exact R0 of Omega vs. Delta is just sort of nitting up around the details.
Bullshit.
You guys are all arguing past each other with no facts or statistics to back it up. Stop.
He thinks he’s describing me, at least, and presumably also CN. See here:
I’ve said that being vaxxed and boosted offers substantial protection against omicron. I still think that’s true. I think it’s true even if I also think that being vaxxed and boosted is more protection against delta than against omicron, and I also think it’s true even if being vaxxed and boosted is somewhat less protection than 2 shots against Wuhan (something like 90% effectiveness vs. say 85% effectiveness). I think an 85% reduction in case rate compared to being unvaccinated is “substantial,” but I guess there’s some standard out there that make that statement misinformation. I have always maintained that people who are vaxxed but who get infected can spread the virus, too.
You’re so damned persistent here because you’re selflessly looking out for others?
#RonBurgundygif.
Id be shocked if we find out being boosted reduces Omicron infection and transmission by 85%.
Its a little more complicated than putting it into one number, which I know you know, but just the anecdotal data (stuff like 100% attack rate on subs, sheer number of cases/breakthroughs, etc) make that seem unlikely to me.
Severe outcomes is different, would buy 85% or higher.
is there literally anyone in this thread who is arguing that it is safe to go to a big game or a crowded indoor venue right now? Because it sure as shit isn’t me. Part of the problem is I don’t think you understand what “substantial protection” means in the context of vaccines. It’s relative to the risk if you’re unvaccinated. It’s not relative to some absolute risk. So two things can be true. The vaccines can still offer substantial protection against infection relative to someone who is not vaccinated and boosted… and you can still recognize that it’s dangerous to go to a public place right now, or to be unmasked, regardless of your vaccination status. You are arguing against charicatures that you have made up.
Edit: The only person in this thread who has taken the position you are arguing against is @cactus. So I guess there is literally a person in this thread who has taken the position you are arguing against.
I seem to be a bit out of date. There was some preliminary indication of 85% here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-48-global-omicron/
Now maybe looking more like 75% for 3x mRNA:
That’s still pretty damn good in my book, but I’m also looking forward to an omicron-specific booster.
Yeah, I think there were some links upthread to other studies that found the boosters to be about 70 percent effective against infection from Omicron.
I was thinking of some of the studies that suggest that wanes over time as well, much like the second shot did. Let me see if I can find a couple of them shortly. Which means that for the “average” boosted person it will end up being lower protection.
Bigger picture, to me at least, is that while I would probably agree with you that as a boosted person my risk of contracting COVID would be lower than it would be if unvaxxed for some activities, Id be hard pressed to argue there should be any differences in behavior and mitigation between boosted and unvaxxed right now. I think (hope) most of us agree on that.
This was like 45% after ten weeks, unclear if that was a bottom or not.
Maybe this is about me going to the theater a few weeks ago? I didn’t think that vaccines gave me us a guarantee of not contracting COVID. But I did believe that the combination of vaccines and masks for everyone in my family plus required vaccines and masks among all attendees would result in a very small risk of a severe negative outcome for any of us. So we chose to go because we thought the risk was worth taking. Around the same time, we chose not to go to a hockey game we already bought tickets for because we thought it would be somewhat riskier given others’ likely behavior, plus the benefit to going wasn’t as large.
I’m not sure how those decisions fit in to JT’s point of view.
JohnnyTruant makes this thread hard to read. Dude just stop. Maybe you are bored or something and constantly want to fight but it’s fucking annoying.
Would this argument happen if Jman said ‘Protection if/when you contract covid’ rather than ‘protection against covid’? Like the vaccine doesn’t do anything to prevent covid particles or whatever getting into your body right? It just makes things a lot less bad when the covid gets in you. I’m not a doctor if you couldn’t tell.
It doesn’t prevent the particles from entering but it does give your immune system a little “Do not allow” picture of the virus so that virus particles that do get in can be targeted and ripped apart before they have a chance to hijack your cells to reproduce.
They’re called opinions and they’re like arseholes - everyone has one but people here don’t want to hear anyone else’s.
And their opinions do nothing but contaminate the thread for weeks on end with no resolution. They talk past each other and it’s detrimental to the thread.
OK that’s one view that some people share, but “contaminate” is strong. Another is that if this forum isn’t for arguing over differences of opinion then what’s it for?
But you still technically “got COVID” you just dealt with it very effectively.