We need roboscorers.
The CF did touch the ball. It clanged off his glove.
Even if it takes until the last week, Mets always gonna Mets. Sigh.
Not saying you’re definitely wrong, but I’ve re-watched a few times in slow-mo and it looks like it drops straight to the ground. I don’t notice any change in speed or direction of the ball.
Technical WAR Discussion Part II
I was going to write a longer post for this but saw that Dave Fleming already articulated some of the key points eloquently on Bill James’s site, so I’m just gonna post the article and quote parts of it. This is specifically about WAR treatment of Ohtani and why I don’t think it makes a ton of sense. It has nothing to do with the extra roster spot which doesn’t seem that valuable to me. (This is from June 2021.)
https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_unicorn_and_the_statistic/
So let’s look at real hitters. FanGraphs says that Ohtani’s offense is comparable to Baltimore CF Cedric Mullins, and Reds LF Nick Castellanos:
This seems odd. Castellanos and Mullins have better batting averages than Shohei, but Ohtani walks more often, and he has a significantly better slugging percentage. So how are they this close on offensive production?
Ohtani is viewed – rightly – as the most productive offensive player of the trio, but he is dinged by WAR’s defensive adjustment. While Mullins’ 20.9 runs are measure against the offensive output of his peer centerfielders, and Castellanos’ offensive output is translated into wins for a corner outfielder, Ohtani’s defensive adjustment considers him a designated hitter, because for most of his at-bats he is a designated hitter.
Is it reasonable to contextualize his hitting among the game’s designated hitters?
Of course not. It’s preposterous. Shohei Ohtani isn’t Nelson Cruz or J.D. Martinez, and it is ludicrous to reduce how we interpret his offensive production because he takes the hill every sixth day.
WAR aims to understand players through the players that are like them, the players that might replace them. How many more runs does Vladimir Guerrero produce over a replacement-level first baseman? How many wins does Jacob deGrom get the Mets over a replacement-level starting pitcher?
But there is no replacement level for Shohei Ohtani, because there is no parallel to what he is doing right now. If he were injured, the Angels [lose] their best starting pitcher and their best hitter. That isn’t one replacement the Angels would have to scramble for, but two. He is doing the work of two players.
Ohtani’s replacement being two players makes no sense if we’re evaluating how many TOTAL BASEBALL RUNS a single player can actually deliver on the field. That’s where this imaginary replacement player thing loses me, and the major sites are Calvinballing the rules because this whole thing is a rattling bicycle taped together with Legos and a ham sandwich. Is WAR measuring value over a single replacement player, or can I choose multiple comparisons for every player to maximally devalue their individual contributions? You have to pick one.
If it’s the first question, then Ohtani’s value is highly deflated. If we’re forced to choose one player to replace him and play those innings, then his WAR is obviously way higher than 9.0. I disagree with Fleming that there’s no way to approximate this. I’ve done the math for several scenarios, but I’ve had a few drinks and will save it for another post.
If it’s the second question, then we’re talking about team roster construction / lineup strategy, and that’s fine but you can’t talk about best players or best seasons anymore. That’s what we’re doing now. In this case, he’s still slightly (at minimum) undervalued by WAR because the positional adjustments are garbage and punish DH too much. I’ll also show the math for that in the next post.
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I was buzzing I guess. On the clip above ITT, and I watched/froze/etc it, it looked to me it clanged and changed direction. So I just looked up the A’s game replay, which shows multiple angles, and it was clearly missed.
I’m not sure it should be an error if it clanged. But since it did not, it’s an easy scoring call of a double.
I wrote this up already somewhere above ITT. Cliffs: sure the rule book says the ball doesn’t need be touched for an error, but for an OF fly ball, this is only ever going to be called if 2 or more players stop short, then watch like fools as it drops between them. In this case the RF was basically attacking the CF for some reason, so it’s a hit.
Brewers bullpen doing yeomans work to get the Phillies into the playoffs.
Talk about a bad trade. Yeesh.
Fucking Mets blowing the division lead in the last series of the season.
Dumbasses. No way they can win the World Series by failing in clutch moments.
The baseball-reference.com standings this morning are weirding me out. Why are they showing Tampa as “clinched a wild card” with 86 wins, but the Jays have 89 wins and have no indicator that they’ve clinched a playoff spot?
I hate the current baseball playoff structure. They should just have the teams with the 4 best records in each League play an intuitive elimination tournament if they want to have more teams make the playoff, the divisions/wild cards structure is just a stupid way to make more teams “playoff relevant” or whatever deep into the season. I am filled with rage, this playoff structure is ruining America.
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Calm down bro. Only about 4 teams are eliminated during hockey’s regular season and you’ve lived this long.
He’s not wrong though.
“Seattle breaks playoff drought”
Not really. They let 15 teams in now.
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Who cares? It’s not like Seattle is bad. Even whichever of the Brewers and Phillies that gets in will have close to 90 wins.
So this is where all our conservatives hang out!
Tied up the game and that Baby Ruth guy for 2nd in all-time RBIs. As a Cardinals fan, this has been a fun year to see all of these milestones back in STL and to even make the playoffs. Don’t really have any expectations for the post-season either, so it’s all gravy on top
Sabo the dog’s Padres clinch the playoffs !!!1! Sabo the dog’s Padres clinch the playoffs !!!1! Sabo the dog’s Padres clinch the playoffs !!!1!.
They just “backed in” when the Fish beat the Beer Makers 4-3 in 12. This is the first time they’ve made the playoffs since 2006*… six years before he was born, and eight years before he became Sabo. It’s not easy begin a Padres fan, but Sabo will always Keep the Faith.
‘*’ Not counting the gimmick 0.37 covid season of 2020. Which counts for nothing, of course.
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Just checking in to slurp Mets tears
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terence gore is on the mets, he’s won back to back rings
one of the wilder baseball careers, a literal only pinch runner who you’d only use to squeeze equity in a small sample size postseason game
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Phillies walk in through the front door after Milwaukee finally makes a late game win. But for naught.
Now my Tigazz have the futility streak.
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Would have imagined a Tungsten Arm from 1890 already did this.
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