Major League Baseball (Part 1)

It’s 60 games. Any team can win the WS this year. It’s the equivalent of a 6 game NFL season.

LORD VARIANCE BE THY NAME!

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Funny side story. My 3 year old had a 105 fever on Christmas from RSV (sort of a reverse corona that hits kids harder). If you try to give him any liquid Tylenol he instantly vomits. The ER doc said the other option was Tylenol in suppository form. I correctly suspected he wouldn’t like that either. He got it one time. After that, he could suddenly stomach the liquid.

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Yea I wonder what crazy shit we gonna see. Baseball players tend to tone it down because it’s a 7 month season if you make the playoffs. But they will all be pedal to the metal.

What 10-1 + dogs stand out?

Teams could go balls to the wall and work their stars harder. Or they may just say fuck it and phone in this season. I’m expecting more of the latter honestly.

Milwaukee 30-1
Chsox 28-1
Phili 28-1
All look ok

I like Cubs at 30-1.

Feel they are co-favorites in Central, and if they make the playoffs, a rotation of Darvish, Hendricks, Lester is pretty solid. Being able to DH Schwarber is nice benefit. Big ? is of course Rizzo’s health.

Also, Blue Jays at 70-1. Yes, that are huge dogs to even make the playoffs, but they have such great young talent that I could see it all coming together this year. Pitching still sucks, but that lineup could be incredible if the young guys all take a step forward.

wait, the Reds are favored to win/be best in the central? I mean, I’ve been following their off season and thought so, but I’m a homer and thought I was just biased.

Put that on the list of improbable things to happen in 2020.

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They have a top 5 pitching staff and added two legit sticks to the middle of the order.

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Well I know that and you know that, it’s just we’ve been down for so long that actually seeing this still surprises me.

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It hasn’t been that long, just seems that way. They won 97 games in 2012 and 90 games in 2013. Was obvious last year that their staff is loaded, but it was somewhat hidden by terrible hitting and giving up early. I think Castellanos will be the biggest “surprise.” He leads the league in 2B over past three years. Big park factor upgrade for RHB.

Rays, Padres, A’s. Really hate Nats and Mets. Astros might still be value. Pitchers have had 3 weeks to stretch compared to the usual 6-7, so they won’t be going deep into games early on. That really favors teams with deep and talented bullpens (not the Nats or Mets). Since it’s only 60 games they’ll be able to use pen arms liberally. Rays have already perfected this style of baseball.

I think Rays/Padres/A’s are the sexiest picks because each could potentially bounce one of the big favorites. It’s basically a conditional probability argument: given the Rays made the playoffs, the Yankees’ chances of winning the World Series are diminished. Same with Padres who have an elite pen and A’s to a lesser degree. Not so lucky if you pick, say, the Twins since they might still have to face Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers to win. I like Brewers (solid pen) and Braves (up against Nats and Mets) a little bit but they have the Twins’ problem.

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Did a little more searching to flesh this out. Preseason projections like Steamer appear to be projecting pitchers for their full work loads. They have deGrom going 6.33 IP per start which is almost exactly his average from last year. Edit: Forgot to clarify that I think all of the models are doing this which is why I’m betting against teams that rely on big starter innings.

That ability must be prevalent throughout an A’s bullpen that’s vital to success in a shortened 60-game baseball season. That’s especially true early on when starting pitchers aren’t fully stretched out.

The A’s hope their frontline pitchers can throw 75-85 pitches to start the year. Efficiency will determine innings eaten, though a long reliever seems crucial to survival in the early going.

The A’s are stretching out several pitchers for key bridge roles, where two or three innings will be required from one man. Setting up tandems are a short-term gain but ultimately aren’t sustainable, but the volume of A’s relievers capable of going long sets them up well until the starters are ready to go the distance.

was 2012 the year they squandered a 2-games-to-none lead in the divisional round versus the ultimate WS champs?

edit: yup, thought so. that had to blow

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Yes after winning first two games on the road.

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excuse me while I go drink myself to sleep while crying into my Johnny Cueto jersey. Thanks. Thanks for reminding me.

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Agree. Elite range and glove in CF, prototypical lead off hitter. Two sport athlete, D1 point guard in hoops.

Shame that the1994 Cleveland team never saw the post season. So much talent and youth.

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yup. The trouble is, HOF voters/writers were (many still are) looking at old-school stats when he was on the ballot. Dragging the baseball establishment into the 21st century is taking a long fucking time.

we’ll see what happens with Scott Rolen, another HOF-caliber player who is at risk of being snubbed.

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I remember the Edwin Encarnación for Scott Rolen trade. Forget who the teams were. Toronto and Cincy maybe? Anyway, it was late in Scott’s career, and the party that received Edwin won that exchange pretty definitively.