Really hard to gauge what‘s going on in Iran right now.
https://twitter.com/natsecjeff/status/1576005356932673537?s=21
This looks like a warzone
What happens when Bolsonaro refuses to leave and says it’s all rigged?
Autocratic dictatorship probably.
Probably learned from Trump failing at his insurrection.
47% in and Bolsanaro still ahead.
Guess they’re banking on the minority candidate vote mostly going to Silva in the second round
That’s interesting. I remember hearing recently that those areas had nearly 100% COVID vaccination rates among adults. So they’re pro-vaccine and pro-Bolsanaro? Seems like a weird combo.
From what I can tell, it looks like the northeast is running at similar margins to 2018, but Bolsonaro is running behind his 2018 margins in the huge population centers he carried handily in 2018. He’s still winning them, but not by as much.
But I’m comparing 2-candidate margins from this first round election to his margins in a runoff, so it’s not apples to apples.
LULA LEADS!
A very loud scream just came from downstairs, I’m up in my office playing a bracelet event. Feels like 2020 all over again, except Brazil actually has a modern voting system and gets results in hours not days.
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By the way, this is more up to date than Bloomberg, but without regional breakdowns:
https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados
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The military leaders have said they won’t back him if he does that, but what else are they going to say in advance, right?
I actually think Lula is a favorite to break 50% now based on where the outstanding vote is, but I only know what’s left by region not by area within a region, and I don’t know how many null votes came in. Also I don’t know how much the voter base grew from 2018->2020, so it’s guesswork. But my rough estimate 15 minutes ago was that he’d get to 52%.
Redacted for privacy.
Bolsonaro carried 58% in Minas in 2018, winning it 6.1M to 4.4M. Lula currently leads 4.5M to 4.2M, so I am not giving him anything extra there since the outstanding vote could favor Bolsonaro.
But if not, if Lula actually carries Minas, I don’t see how he doesn’t get to 50%.
Sounds familiar
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1576714096602275840?s=46&t=mHY_cxuA1Iq9kAr6AM6X_w
CNN Brazil disagrees with me, they say it’s virtually impossible to avoid a runoff now.
The commonWealth household is not at all optimistic about a runoff. This doesn’t look good.
So we have the now standard dynamic where the deplorable vote is systematically under polled?
Bloomberg has called it going to a runoff.