My girlfriend said Bolsonaro supporters are coming out now saying they refused to respond to polls before the election in order to prove that the polling was rigged just like the election is rigged.
Some truly galaxy brain shit
Iâll admit I know next to nothing about Brazilian politics but it seems like Lula should be the favorite in the runoff based on these results. Like, how many of the non-Lula non-Bolsonaro voters are going to come out next time and vote for Bolsonaro? Doesnât seem likely itâs enough to swing it. And similarly is there going to be some massive surge of Bolsonaro voters who skipped round 1? Again, I donât see it.
She also says the two third party candidates that got a decent amount of votes are right of center, and that they likely picked up votes from people who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 and donât like him now but wonât vote for Lula. So itâs more likely on a runoff that they come home to Bolsonaro, since they could have voted null today or voted for Lula⌠Their third party votes helped Bolsonaro get to the runoff since null votes donât count.
So now Bolsonaro will spend a month working on them and heâll likely make up ground. Also she says that in the closing stretch he basically ran the GOP playbook from a couple years ago. Her stepfather ended up not voting at all (which is illegal) but was going to vote for Bolsonaro because he said Lula wanted to let transgendered men go to the same bathroom as little girls, and he had to protect her little sisters and vote Bolsonaro.
Itâs amazing that the same exact stupid shit works on stupid people everywhere. She said the closing stretch was about guns, God, and hate.
Maybe just Simone Tebet is right of center then. Just clarified with her, before she just said Gomes was against Lula and I assumed right wing. But yeah heâs a left winger who feuded with Lula in the debate and peeled off support. So thatâs good.
Man this does not bode well for US elections.
Well, the polls are only off by 1-2%. So not the worst ever.
OK my girlfriend is giving me bad info, she said it was polling at like 49% to 50% for Lula and 40% to 41% for Bolsonaro.
Hey weâve all been there - sometimes when youâre unsure who to vote for you just go the safe option of the right-wing, covid-denying, military-junta worshipping psychopath.
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They didnât give the true answer when polled because they donât want to end up on a deep state list.
This doesnât make sense from a US perspective, but it makes perfect sense in Latin America.
Bigger cities are where most people who are better off live, and they all favor center-right and right wing candidates because their policies favor the status quo. They see left wing candidates as a threat to their lifestyle and social position.
However, these people also know that getting COVID in Latin America is very dangerous, no matter how much money you have. So they go ahead and get vaccinated.
My family back home all fit this mold. Theyâre catholic, vote for right wing candidates, and are all vaccinated.
Forgot to add: when people ask how come some Hispanic immigrants support trump or Republicans? The answer is that for the most part those who vote republican fit the mold above. And because those people have better financial resources they are also more likely to move to the US.
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Lots of Latin Americans identify as white.
Thanks. Thatâs very interesting. We get the dumber deplorables. Lucky us.
Theyâre a special beast in the US for sure but the rest of the world is running fast to catch up and it really isnât being reported much. I mean Australia just had its first CPAC over the weekend!
Alright after reviewing the results very closely and talking it over with my gf, weâre much more optimistic now about a close Lula win in the runoff. I think itâs going to be like 51% to 49%.
So Bolsonaro will be president then!
Huh?
Iâll be eager to see how orderly a transition it will be at 51 to 49 âŚ
Oh, yeah, I agree thatâll be a risky transition at best.
Care to share your thought process and reasoning behind this?