That’s weird, PredictIt has Lula at like 94%.
Lula into the lead!
Nah I’m just using euro decimal odds, 1.08 is 92.5%
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https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1586831803980992512?s=20&t=_tzCu2butgzwEzy01mQ0sg
Since I have no idea which votes have been counted and what we should have expected this could mean anything from very good to very bad.
It’s currently:
Lulsa 50.21%
Bolsonaro 49.79%
About 76% of the vote is counted.
The outstanding votes should be Lula-friendly, they are usually slower to count in the areas that support him.
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Sucks that we always have to win the majority of votes/no coup parlay
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That’s because being more intelligent, we’re on the dumber side.
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I know it’s late in the day, but this site has very fast updates:
It’s in Portuguese but is entirely self explanatory.
As of now (94% in) Lula is winning by 1.2%. A lot closer than thought, which probably means Bolsonaro’s even more likely to try and cling on.
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So Lula is going to win and Bolsonaro is going to do a coup.
I’m sure that right wing psychopaths overperforming isn’t anything we’re going to have to deal with in a little over a week.
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This is the official results site, fwiw:
https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados
Some organizations are calling it for Lula, but the official call has not been made and CNN has not called it.
They disrupted up to 3 million voters with the federal police in liberal areas, and the current gap is about 650K.
CNN Brasil says they will not call it until all of the votes are counted, so that Bolsonaro cannot say they impacted the outcome or caused votes not to be counted. They just compared him to Trump.
Lula just took the lead in my girlfriend’s home state, 50.02% to 49.98%, she’s very excited!
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She’s comparing her home state to Pennsylvania, she says it’s a swing state that usually determines the outcome and part of it is like the Northeast of Brazil and part is like the South, which are like the Northeast and South here.
The commonWealth household: delivering swing state victories in key elections since 2020!
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Update: the workers voted for Lula, so that’s gonna be…
Bolsonaro -1 vote
Lula +2 votes
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This one?