Tomorrow no good for me, but I did sign up on her website to knock on doors. So thank you for the push.
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Go Sasha!
Some of the long term effects of her primary win (as well as Luis Zamora in SF) include turning over the leadership of CADEM’s LGBTQ Caucus to two of my friends.
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Very cool, congrats to your friends! I chatted with Sasha on Saturday and she’s great, I’m going back on Saturday for more canvassing. We don’t just need to beat the lunatics, we need to beat them firmly and decisively.
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They texted me, I’m planning to go.
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They called me about this, but we’re leaving tomorrow AM for a wedding in Mexico so I’ll miss it.
Would have enjoyed eating a couple of tacos with you and the other volunteers. Guess we may still be doing that at the same time, just not together…
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My wife flaked and I got paired with a total rando, wish you had been there!
Talked to Sasha for quite a while, she’s pretty awesome.
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Now that it’s GOTV weekend and we’re leaving it all on the field, I’m ready to make my predictions for my own races this cycle. In August at the filing deadline, I had signed contracts with four local candidates, all Democrats running in very red east San Diego County. Here’s my “state of the race” and predictions for each one.
TL;DR: I predict I will go 3 for 4 this cycle.
Ramona Municipal Water District Division 5, Ramona, CA
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Total voters: 6027
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Dems: 1350
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Reps: 3107
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Other: 1570
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State of the Race/Story: This is MY division. I was tipped off by the General Manager of the water district (who’s a dem) that the sitting board members wanted the incumbent gone, and were looking for a good candidate to run against him. So I needed to find a literal neighbor who would run for this seat. So I went to a our new Democratic Club meeting in June and met Princess Norman (yes, that’s her name), a former City of San Diego IT Project Manager who said she’d run. We geared up and got everything ready. Then the incumbent didn’t file his paperwork on time, and Princess was unopposed. In SD County, unopposed local candidates don’t go on the ballot, so this race was won before it even began. Princess will be sworn into the Ramona Water Board in December, and to top off this win, she will also become the Board’s representative to the greater San Diego County Water Authority.
Padre Dam Municipal Water District, Division 2, Santee, CA.
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Total Voters: 14,910
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Dems: 4662
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Reps: 6192
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Other: 4056
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State of the Race/Story: Dr. Suzanne Till is the Democratic incumbent for this seat. She’s one of the few elected Democrats east of La Mesa, and the Republicans dumped a ton of money at their candidate to try to defeat her. Fortunately for us, establishment republicans in east San Diego County don’t know how to run modern campaigns, because they haven’t ever needed to. Our opponent has outspent us 4:1, but we’re not sure what he’s getting for his money. He spent $11k on signs.
He bought walk literature, but they don’t actually knock on the doors, they just drop lit off at the door and move on. Meanwhile, Suzanne reused her signs from 2020, and our only significant expense was $7500 on a mailer. We have been knocking on doors since May, and managed to cover all but 9 of the 37 voting precincts in Suzanne’s division. -
Prediction: Dem Win, and it won’t be close.
Padre Dam MWD, Division 4: Alpine, Crest, and Harbison Canyon, CA
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Total Voters: 15,388
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Dems: 3393 (oof)
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Reps: 8291
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Other: 3704
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State of the Race/Story: This is a true rural district. As you can see from the numbers, we cannot win if we don’t persuade Republicans. Fortunately, that’s easy when it’s a non-partisan race. Kim Hales is a biology professor and owns a small ranch in Alpine. Her opponent was appointed to the board…and that’s why messaging for this race in this electorate was a breeze. As you can imagine, those 8k republicans are mostly “drain the swamp” types. Guess what triggers them? “Kim’s opponent was appointed to the board by the good ol’ boy network that has run east county politics for years.” It also helps that the incumbent follows the “just put up signs” theory of campaigning, and he has no money. He didn’t even put a candidate statement in the ballot information book. This race will be a true test of the power of effort. We’ve knocked on ~2k doors and sent a couple of texts. He’s done nothing.
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Prediction: Dem win, not particularly close.
Santee School Board: Santee, CA
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Total Voters: 41,359
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Dems: 12,917
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Reps: 17,262
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Other: 11,180
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State of the Race/Story: This one is a classic, and it’s probably going to break my heart. On one side, a Moms for Liberty-endorsed candidate who organized a hate rally at the YMCA and wants to Christianize our schools. On the other, a scrappy retired teacher who jumped in at the last minute and is a true blue Democrat and was inspired to run because of the hate rally at the YMCA. Monique Silver (Dem) has the teachers and staff and admin and even the sitting board members on her side. Tracie Thill has the East County GOP and RWNJ machine on hers. Tracie relies on social media, big signs, and the GOP endorsement, and sends folks out to drop lit at doors. She herself knocks, but her “volunteers” don’t. Our team has knocked 3500 doors since September 12th, sent texts and made calls, all on a shoestring budget. I have some indicators that late-deciders are breaking our way, but I just don’t know if it will be enough to overcome the derposphere messaging (oh no they’re transing my kids at school!) that the SD GOP bombards them with. Tracie has also been running for a year, after losing in 2022.
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Prediction: Dem loss, but it will be closer than it “should” be. My one consolation is the rest of the board won’t let Tracie get away with her bullshit agenda.
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I ain’t reading all that but I’m happy for you or sorry that happened
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How much is a “ton of money” in the context of a municipal water district?
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$30,000
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Is she pink and a cat woman?
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Congrats on the likely positive results and thanks for putting in the effort in races that had otherwise been abandoned.
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Update, as of 1:19am PST
As predicted. I thought the school board race would be closer until I saw the national results start coming in. This result makes perfect sense given that environment.
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Gimme some context. Are you winning?
To me the two most important things to do on Tuesday was to beat Will Lathrop for Oregon Attorney General, and beat Rene Gonzalez for Portland mayor. Both happened, but still seems overshadowed by potus vibes
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(R) Lathrop just saturated all media with images of homeless camps and public drug use. Almost won Oregon but we stopped him. Multnomah County 78-21 against. (Biggest county, mostly Portland)
Yet everyone is sure it’s hell here. But only 21% of residents think so enough to vote for the chud.