Gotta listen to the occasional Model Talk podcast where he discusses such things.
Agree, but there are always the Rawanda type situations, to say nothing of religious conflicts.
We need an anti-hate ideology to go along with anti-racism.
One of the surest paths to power in a democracy is running against the minority.
Is it bad to smoke weed everyday?
- Yes
- No
- Maybe
0 voters
I answered Maybe because I gain massive tolerance through daily weed smoking. It’s not the fried egg on the skillet that gets you, it’s the loss of potency.
I think she’s supporting the idea that overworked doctors prescribe anti depressants too readily instead of referring some patients to counselling.
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Thank you. That was gross!
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Lol until you put a thread title to it, I was scrolling so fast, I had no idea what they were arguing about. All I saw was a bunch of fuck yous back and forth.
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Sorry, I thought everyone has read the Food Stamp threads from the last several years and most of us were operating on previous knowledge. I am not getting that into it further either.
You weren’t the one who was being gross fwiw. I’m just glad it is it’s own thread now.
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This is utterly heartbreaking. Two lives ruined for nothing put pure racist cruelty from the state of Alabama.
But yeah, respect the troops.
Well, I think those things you named were in fact quite good, and the way he’s implemented them is pretty clever. I also think the calibration on his model in 2016 to be conservative early and aggressive late worked out well in 2016 but is also reasonable, human memory has a signifcant recency bias. The other clever part of his model imo, was to take signal from movement in a single poll. For example if PPP goes from Biden +10 to Biden +6 that’s a pretty reliable sign that Trump’s standing has increased by 4, since at least all the house effects are held constant between the two PPP polls.
Obviously there’s no way for me to comment yet on his 2020 model since he hasn’t published it, but I certainly will read it thoroughly when he does.
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Oh, totally agree that all of these are good! I think that Nate’s approach was a substantial evolution in understanding political polling and prediction. I’m not slighting that at all. I just didn’t know about any major improvements he made to his own process/models since 2012. But maybe that’s on me because it’s been a few years since I’ve really followed his stuff closely.
Brilliant