Land of Hope & Glory? - UK Politics and other stuff

Smacc_25 · November 23, 2020, 3:22pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1330639012458016768

Smacc_25 · November 23, 2020, 4:12pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1330901655555018752

Smacc_25 · November 23, 2020, 8:17pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1330959729439420420

Smacc_25 · November 23, 2020, 8:20pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1330916941159075841

https://mobile.twitter.com/StegasauroB/status/1330936859648724993

pyatnitski · November 24, 2020, 12:36pm

Seems a good summary of where things are with Brexit, which seems pretty bad.

Let us not forget that the UK’s choices are now between a very skimpy deal, which would presumably include no tariffs and no quotas, but not much else. Even in that scenario, there would still be a great deal of economic disruption because the UK would still be subject to “non-tariff trade barriers,” as in other border frictions, like documentation requirements, VAT reporting/deposits, and for food products, physiosanitary checks.

So here we are, after a long-ish transition period, and the basic conundrum remains. The two sides don’t have an overlap in their bargaining positions.

It might be possible to stitch up a compromise on fisheries, even though, as Richard North pointed out, any quota-monitoring system would be so costly that the UK would be better off to give the EU all the fish and pay the fisherman their pre-Brexit incomes instead.

However, level playing field is an existential issue for the EU. Contrary to the claims of Tory pols and columnists, the Canada trade deal did include those protections. The EU is not going to budge. The Tories have made this issue into a threat to their pet sovereignity, even though Canada had no such qualms. So it’s about to become the hill on which they will die.

I’ve always imagined they would do the compromises to get a minimal deal. That said, through every other stage I’ve agreed with this article that there simply isn’t an overlap between the EU position and that of the eurosceptic Tories (that the ‘people’ have chosen whenever they’ve had a say), so I’ve expected failure. Exciting, and it seems even Johnson hasn’t decided yet!

One senior official says: “To tell you the truth, we don’t know [whether he’ll stand firm and not take a deal] — and frankly, I don’t think the PM knows either.”

Jalfrezi · November 24, 2020, 1:48pm

I don’t think it matters what Johnson thinks - he’ll do what 'er indoors tells him, just as he did with Cummings.

We’ve already read the anonymous reports of ministers leaving meetings with him having agreed a set of steps, only for him to disappear upstairs to the number 10 flat followed by WhatsApp messages to them 15 minutes later with a different set of steps.

Britain is now being led by Carrie fucking Symonds.

My money’s now on a deal that will be painted as hard line but which gives way on fishing (which is of only minor interest to the UK anyway) - especially after the latest set of talks were cancelled after Barnier had to self-isolate with no sense of panic at all.