lol pre coffee acronym gaffs itt.
If the Rs were going to do it AND it was actually politically smart for them to do it, it already would have happened in 2017. Having the filibuster in place helps them even when they are in power because those in leadership have understood that many of their policies are broadly unpopular. Being able to run on slogans to attain power and then have an excuse to their base as to why they never actually pass anything aside from tax cuts? But still be able to seat judges at will when theyâre in power because of the limited exception they did pass? Thatâs the sweet spot. I expect, when next positioned to kill the filibuster, that is why they will solemnly decline in the name of purported sobriety and reasonableness.
Only real wildcard in this is that Mitch McConnell isnât going to be majority leader again, so if someone with more reckless and less pragmatic impulses gets the steering wheel then itâs possible theyâll just shrug and burn it to the ground. But in the meantime I think they legitimately prefer to have the filibuster in place no matter who is in power.
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I agree that they wonât move first on it, but if the Ds do any kind of filibuster reform while they have power then all bets are off when Rs get it back. It would be foolish for them not to fully nuke it if the Ds move first and they are many things, but not foolish when it comes to exercising power.
ETA: and for the record I think it would be a great thing if they did. Sure they would do terrible things but needing 60 votes to do anything on top of all the dumb shit built into the system to gum up the works is beyond idiotic. When you win power you should be able to use it on a simple majority basis like our glorious founders intended.
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Right, but itâs politically foolish to pass unpopular policies, which is why they love the guardrail that purportedly constrains them. I donât think weâre too near a level yet where the majority of R Senators fails to understand this.
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I think itâs more of an eye for an eye thing. The Ds allowed for 50 vote judges except SCOTUS, the Rs expanded it to include SCOTUS. It would be the same thing for any kind of filibuster reform. Also they passed a lot of unpopular shit when they had power last time. The Trump tax cuts polled terribly when they were pushing them through as did a lot of the spending cuts they passed. I donât think they would use the power they gained to do something like a full nationwide abortion ban necessarily, but they could do things like national concealed carry or some even more heinous immigration shit without batting an eye.
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Probably not, but if Harris wins this election on a foundation of relentlessly trolling Rs and sending their lawnmowers into orbit all the time, thereâs a small but non-zero chance that they keep mashing that button until it stops working.
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Yeah true, unpopular tax policy seems to fall under the things that voters will express disapproval of but wonât punish at the ballot box. I would agree insofar as they would do what it took to pass policy that wouldnât jeopardize their political futures in any way.
I donât have a strong feeling of whether they would do the latter examples; they have their own tightrope to walk with regard to gun policy. My tendency is to think that with immigration they strongly prefer not to ever let any significant legislation pass, even if they wouldnât directly lose huge support at the ballot box over it, because they lean hard on their ability to campaign on it and it would be a risky move in terms of changing the complexion of an issue that persistently helps them with a majority of the electorate. At the same time, I donât feel strongly that youâre necessarily wrong about that. You could be right.
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I think if they get to 53 or 54 senators it is in play but thatâs not possible this cycle unless they win senate seats in Montana, Florida, Texas, and West Virginia
Supposedly they had everyone on board with filibuster removal but Manchin and Sinema but it would not surprise me if there were some other gutless bastards who just hid behind them.
I would rather do Bidenâs supreme court amendment (18 year terms, each president gets 2, 2/3 majority in senate to reject a nominee) than court packing, as packing just feels like mutual assured destruction. But between Mitchâs gamesmanship and the GOP running insanely hot in the death lottery, itâs gotta happen.
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Thatâs fine. Republicans benefit from the status quo where voters see no apparent relationship between who is âin powerâ and policies that impact their lives. Eliminating the filibuster will create that feedback loop, which is essential to a functioning democracy.
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The filibuster benefits the GOP overwhelmingly more than it hinders them. More than anything else, even compared to enacting their own policy, they want to stop Dem policy. Remember, they theoretically had the votes to eliminate Obamacare but they couldnât because it was too unpoplular.
Itâs way more popular to stop popular legislation than it is to take away something people already have.
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Yep. If Republicans actually had a legislative agenda and the filibuster was standing in its way, it would be gone in half a second. Even if they take the WH and both chambers this year, I am willing to bet they donât touch it. Even on things like a national abortion ban. They donât actually want it. They benefit much more from the fight than they do from actually winning it. Theyâll hide behind the filibuster and then cry about norms if/when the dems ever eliminate it. Their only 2 legislative priorities under 4 years of Trump were tax cuts for the rich which they did via reconciliation, and eliminate the ACA which they didnât even have 50 votes on as shown above.
Walz is going to Omaha on Saturday
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Not to mention that maintaining the filibuster is a huge structural advantage for whichever party controls the SCOTUS.
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The kayfabe gets replaced man
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Somewhere in middle America
Get right to the heart of matters
Itâs the heart that matters more
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Nah, lots of potential for them to do something extremely half-assed and get a little bit of a gain only for Rs to come back and drop the hammer next time around. And to be clear Iâm 100% fine with either side nuking the filibuster to do whatever they want. If you have a majority you should be able to do whatever you want within the confines of that majority and if you donât like it then win some elections and do whatever you want.
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I assume theyâre holding this in their back pocket until closer to election day, but itâs a GAME CHANGER:
https://x.com/aaaronson/status/1823746107240825206
[William Taft is the only all-straight-line president]
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William Tast does not count
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