I had coffee with my state senator this AM. He thinks itâs Kelly and he thinks the announcement is tomorrow.
Iâm resigning myself to Harris picking someone other than Pete. Feels sad man.
FWIW my senator was just going on his instincts and had no inside info (he said). But yeah my gut is that it wonât be Pete. I still think probably Shapiro.
Fair fair. She better keep him in the cabinet. And of course we could always be surprised with the VP pick in the end.
With the understanding that I donât know shit and might be very wrong, it feels like anything outside of Pete or Walz is a huge error. Are they gonna fuck this up?
Pretty rare for any VP choice to be that huge of an error. I certainly have my preferences, but I donât really think this is ultimately the make-or-break moment in terms of the eventual result this November.
Yeah, as long as the VP pick isnât completely terrible it doesnât matter that much.
The ultimate pick would be Kid Rock. Donât know if he would agree, but it would strip Trump of one of his big guns and help win over independents.
None of the people on the short list would be a JD Vance level error. Probably all of them are better than Tim Kaine too.
I dislike Shapiro pick because as I understand it, that Dem Lt Gov would become Gov but then a Republican would become PA LT Gov and I donât want to be one heartbeat away from Republicans controlling PA. I also think Shapiro is less charismatic and less likely to be a future president than Pete.
I donât give a shit about the VPâs policies like their position on Israel because it literally doesnât matter unless the president dies and they get the big job. VPs donât really make any policy decisions.
Saying that the VPâs policies donât matter is a bit hard to believe, since the only reason Kamala is in the spot she is in right now is because she was VP.
Iâm not sure Iâd call Shapiro âa massive errorâ. But it would be quite disappointing (and quite risky imo). Of the 5 candidates left, heâs definitely my last choice.
I guess it all comes down to the conventional wisdom of PA being the likely tipping point state, and the assumption that Shapiro will give you at least a couple point bump and guarantee you the state (or at least solidify it to the point that you can divert funds elsewhere).
Itâs probably the only real tangible effect the VP nominee can have outside of them being an idiot/weirdo a la Palin or Vance, and Shapiro surely isnât that bad.
Of course their policies matter, in that it shows what (or who) the campaign thinks matters and what theyâre positioned to stump for/against.
Picking Shapiro indicates they donât care about whatâs going on in Gaza and donât plan on pretending to care
But it also sets them up nicely to blame people that care about Gaza if they lose.
Out of the current frontrunners, which one has a significantly different position on Israel/Gaza? Or are you saying she has to look completely elsewhere (which is fair but prolly not gonna happen).
Has the VP nomination ever won someone a home state that was up in the air?
Harris/California = no impact
Pence/Indiana = no impact
Kaine/Virginia = no impact (I donât think, in 2016, Virginia was +5 for Hillary)
Biden/Delaware = no impact
Ryan/Wisconsin = no impact (Mitt lost Wisconsin by -7)
Palin/Alaska = no impact
Cheney/Wyoming = no impact
Edwards/North Carolina = no impact (Kerry lost North Carolina by -13)
Why on earth would anyone think that if you pick a VP from State X that helps you win State X?
I see where youâre coming from, but I donât think you can draw that conclusion. If they pick Shapiro, it could mean that their biggest reason in doing so was to increase the likelihood of winning Pennsylvania, potentially in spite of Shapiroâs stance on Gaza.
Or it could be for a number of other reasons, including that they like his position on Gaza.
That should all become more clear as the campaign unfolds since there are other ways to communicate policy positions. Kamalaâs remarks after meeting with Netanyahu seemed to be movement in the right direction.
I wish, hope against hope, that itâd be him, but if I were Harris Iâd play it safe and go with the more conservative swing state guy
https://x.com/AmziQureshi/status/1819096656178000267
also lol at the difference between the Walz and Shapiro cancellations. Man of the people vs high flying finance dude.
Walz has at least been receptive to protestors afaik and not just calling them the KKK or whatever Shapiro did. Idk about the others. None will be pro-Gaza because itâs the Dems but itâd be nice to go a little Iess GOP-lite on these issues.
This is all mostly venting because the campaign has already indicated theyâre going to run to the right which is frustrating yet unsurprising.
Nate the Great has done a statistical analysis and found that your âno impactsâ actually round up to somewhere between a 0.5% to 2% bump and just because that hasnât decided a modern election in the limited sample size we have doesnât mean it canât. Obviously if Shapiro was otherwise a weak candidate then you shouldnât pick him just for the home state effect but that doesnât seem to be the case.