I had no idea. I would have said “Gruber”.
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Either that or Moleman.
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I took AP art history and follow art a decent amount and only know the name from the art supply company.
I ran some toy game versions of the lock-tie situation through a solver several weeks ago. Didn’t triple check the math on this because it’s extremely tedious but if anyone wants to do that feel free. Note that this particular abstraction with payoffs already baked in is the only way I can get it to run. Adding nature/chance nodes blows up the tree and the computer refuses to even try it. It’s the specific scenario where 3rd place doesn’t qualify, 1st place has 20k, 2nd place has 10k.
I know this is going to be confusing so I’ll try to explain. I’m focusing on the Extreme Equilibrium (EE) and Expected Payoffs (EP) of the players where P1 = the leader and P2 = the trailer. An EE is a vertex of a Nash equilibria convex set, i.e., a most extreme point from the set of Nash equilibria. There can be multiple ones, but they are finite and in this case there is only one such point.
The main takeaway is that the solution is much closer to what I would naturally expect this game to look like in equilibrium, which is to say mixed strategies for both players. It’s just that the magnitude of those values was a bit surprising to me. Those probabilities are (approximately)
Leader
Bet $0: 1/3
Bet $1: 0
Bet $9,999: 0
Bet $19,999: 2/3
Expected Payoff: $38,113
Trailer
Bet it all: 1/4
Don’t bet it all: 3/4
Expected payoff: $9,178
It seems like the common folk understanding of this scenario is that the trailer “should always bet it all, but is idiotic and therefore doesn’t” which I believe to be incorrect. That’s compounded with advice that the leader “should always bet $1 because the trailer is too naive to bet it all and often bets less.” By definition, playing a strategy that specifically exploits an opponent is itself exploitable and not part of a Nash equilibrium or “GTO.”
The most surprising part is the trailer max betting only 1/4 of the time. The problem with always max betting, which is what some people seem to be advocating as the only possible strategy, is that the leader is then free to rip it for max dollars, which (s)he obviously should be doing in such a scenario with a guaranteed all-in bet from 2nd place.
Holy Shit, that poor lady was catatonic during FJ. Just completely gone.
She is 20k poorer
please clap
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I will miss Lisa. She was funny
Oh yeah, I wasn’t gonna say anything but I was getting big Hitler vibes from him but I can’t put my finger on exactly why
Clearly nobody in his family loves him
Hold your breath, four full months of mayim coming up
That’s gonna be a no from me, dawg.
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If someone invented a drinking game where he drank every time mayim fake laughed at something unfunny, he’d be dead already
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Uh no!
Never would have imagined FOX cancelling a terrible sitcom would worry me so much
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Never watch a millisecond.
Did set the DVR for the Masters tourney starting on Monday.
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James
Yeah that was a lot of fun
Crazy enough I was watching a bridge twitch stream of a big tournament earlier today. Only about 200 viewers…but James was one of the three people commentating on the play. Quite the funny dichotomy of seeing him twice in a day.
Just for proof…
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James alone is going to be reason enough to watch for the next three weeks.
STOP DUCKING A REMATCH KEN
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