Okay, it’s not like I think murder or intentionally backing off from suicide watch is 100%, just that it’s more likely.
There’s some kind of weird reverse base-rate fallacy going on here. Sure it’s implausible that Epstein was murdered by a conspiracy, but it’s also extremely unlikely for a particular inmate to kill themselves. Google is saying the annual suicide rate is something like 150 per 100k prisoners, so 0.15% per year. The prior that it was suicide and not murder is just not that strong.
Non-Bayesian thinking imo. What’s the suicide rate among pedophiles facing life sentences?
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Most conspiracy theories are totally impossible from a common sense perspective and obvious propaganda. The death of Epstein is what real conspiracies look like. It’s small scale, involves a limited number of people, and has narrowly targeted goals. The place where most conspiracy theories die is the idea that they got more than say 5 people to be in on it and kept the secret.
History is absolutely full of busted conspiracies. They mostly bust because they try to involve too many people. There’s a reason why the natural setup for organizations prioritizing secrecy is cellular. That’s because realistically you can’t get more than MAX 25-50 people to keep a secret… and that’s with them 100% believing that something unthinkable will happen to them and everyone they care about if they fuck up the secrecy.
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What’s the suicide rate among folks who die in prison awaiting trial? Pretty high I think.
Now we just need the base rate of billionaire financier/professional blackmailer getting murdered in prison by the Illuminati and we’ll be all set.
Paging Skavid Dlansky
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Either something’s up, or this guy is a big QAnon follower. Hard to say…
The conspiracy imo is the cover up by the MSM as usual, not once have I heard “Disgraced Child predator” on the news before hearing “Disgraced financier” or something to that affect.
No MSM is chasing down The Dersh, The Pilots or finding out the other older women who assisted in Epsteins crimes.
When do we see other peeps getting arrested, like that bodyguard too. If 1 person who worked in JE close circle does not get a “Interview” then it’s a cover up, period!
It’s the post so grain of salt.
He was in ‘great spirits’ because he found out they were going to allow him to kill himself.
“Worth noting as well that it was reported that Epstein killed himself by attaching a bedsheet to a top bunk and kneeling down towards the floor. That’s not like a hanging where you drop a foot into a noose. Seems less likely you would break multiple bones that way.”
Well, depends. The hyoid is a a dinky useless little slab of bone that fractures easily - you can break it by vomiting hard enough, although that is rare. It also SELDOM fractures alone in cases of trauma - I had a vague notion about going into pathology back in the days when we actually did autopsies on patients, and I remember the attending telling us to be careful when working in the area due to its fragility.
Hanging yourself results in strangulation, to be clear - the ICD codes ask you whether the strangulation was accidental, self-induced or from assault - but don’t infer anything from the term.
It would be helpful to know what the other fractures were, but I can’t find a cite. Transverse process fractures are common and pretty much meaningless - they can occur from minor trauma and a foot long drop could do it, especially in an older patient (extra points if he had osteopenia/osteoporosis, which are more common in women but occur in men) - fractures of the cervical vertebral bodies would require more energy, and IMHO would be more suspicious in terms of an assault. And I’d like to see whether the fractures were acute or sub-acute - he did have the previous injury, and despite what you see on TV, breaking your neck doesn’t necessarily mean you have anything other than pain - if all he had done at the time of the initial injury were plain x-rays rather than CT or MRI images, nondisplaced fracture are routinely missed - we CT ALL neck injuries if there is any concern about possible significant injury, and I would argue it’s malpractice not to do so.
MM MD
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Lol
@hobbes9324 lurker here - chiming in to say I read every word of yours, every time.
Thanks for the thoughtful insight!!
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For those who believe in a conspiracy, is there any evidence short of video from inside the cell that would convince you that it was a suicide unassisted by anything more than incompetence?
For those who believe in no conspiracy, what level of evidence would convince you that there was one?
What’s the murder rate among pedophiles facing life sentences?
Telling people to kill themselves, or saying you hope that they will, even as a joke, is totally not cool on this site.
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Hyoid Bone is a Jewish porn star.
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Legit lower than Esptein and the other involved