Jeffrey Epstein and Associates

[Rivaldo]

prolly more dangerous, too

[catfacemeowmers]

@Rivaldo

Legit lower than Esptein and the other involved

This seems fair

[MasterofthePwn]

Lol, what a meltdown.

[Trolly]

@NotBruceZ

@Trolly

Non-Bayesian thinking imo. What’s the suicide rate among pedophiles facing life sentences?

What’s the murder rate among pedophiles facing life sentences?

I would be interesting to compare these stats, tbh.

[suzzer99]

Jeffrey Epstein Spent Time Alone With Young Woman In Prison's Attorney Room

[Bigoldnit]

I’m still on team “I have some questions” so I guess I’ll just list some data that would strongly influence my opinion.

• How long does a “suicide watch” typically last? I’m sure there is lots of variance based on facility and inmate, but if Epstein spent significantly less time under watch than a typical inmate, that would be a red flag to me.

• I’m going to want a lot more info about typical roommate situations. I hadn’t really given it much thought, but, my low info, pre-Epstein assumption was that most inmates had roommates and that the assignments were pretty stable. But maybe they are way more chaotic than my priors.

• Absent a deviation from normal behavior by the guards, would Epstein have perceived that he would have enough time to commit suicide before being discovered by the guards. If he always knew that on any given night he would have, say, a 30 minute window of opportunity and could do the deed in say 5 minutes, that is much less suspicious than if he only had sufficient opportunity on this particular night because of unique circumstances.

• Oh, and I’m gonna need to know whether the amount of camera surveillance around the hallways and other areas outside of his cell is above average, average, or below average compared to other cells in that area. Like, if his cell door is located in some unique blindspot, that would be hella fishy to me.

[MasterofthePwn]

Lol at the conspiracy theorists who believe there is conspiracy to make everyone think there are highly unusual and interesting facts that are currently unknown in this batshit crazy case.

[Trolly]

@suzzer99

Jeffrey Epstein Spent Time Alone With Young Woman In Prison's Attorney Room

“May have been part of his legal team?” Shouldn’t the reporter be able to call up Ep’s lawyer and fact-check that?

This is some irresponsible-ass journalism if we find out she is on his legal team.

[microbet]

“Fuck this site” is ldo allowed imo.

[Cactus]

@boredsocial

That’s because realistically you can’t get more than MAX 25-50 people to keep a secret… and that’s with them 100% believing that something unthinkable will happen to them and everyone they care about if they fuck up the secrecy.

I agree it’s probably impossible for even 4+ people to take a secret to their grave (like the sheer number of people that would have to be involved in a conspiracy on the scale of 9/11 make it practically impossible). But who says there has to be a lot of people in on this one?

I generally don’t subscribe to conspiracy theories, but no matter how you look at this it’s messed up. Even if it was suicide there was at the very least gross negligence on the part of more than a few people. It would be in the best interest of many powerful people if he couldn’t talk. That doesn’t mean they all had to be in on it. It could’ve been just one and 2 people who were very well compensated. Doesn’t seem that far fetched to me

[Smacc_25]

@JohnnyTruant

Nobody was firing you so no need to quit first

[SirOsis]

LOL, wow. I did not expect this. Just getting a double chee and reading a book?

Jeffrey Epstein’s gal pal Ghislaine Maxwell spotted at In-N-Out Burger in...

Maxwell, 57, the alleged madam to the multimillionaire pedophile, was scarfing down a burger, fries and shake al fresco at an In-N-Out Burger on Monday while reading “The Book of Honor: The Secret Lives and Deaths of CIA Operatives,” a nonfiction best seller by journalist Ted Gup.

[beetlejuice]

lol

[beetlejuice]

come back, rivaldo, turns out epstein was Q

[clovis8]

I’ll just add this to the discussion.

The 4 a.m. mystery | Rives

[beetlejuice]

trump has repeatedly tweeted out the numbers 13 and 17, these are obviously clues to the Q conspiracy.

“jeffrey epstein” has 13 letters.

“first 13, later 17”

who is #17? the key to unlocking the vast hidden conspiracy that has been undermining traditional family values and has taken over hollywood and the banks, as well as a certain country in the middle east, is a man somehow associated with the number 17. trump knows who it is. trump knows it all. he’s playing their game like a kasparov/deep blue cyborg organism designed by our lord jesus christ solely to do deals, and this is the deal of his life. it’s the deal of all our lives.

[beetlejuice]

“CIA” has 3 letters, so it’s probably not them

[Lawnmower_Man]

I already profiled him itt and everything written here is obviously correct.

[ChrisV]

@bobman0330

There’s some kind of weird reverse base-rate fallacy going on here. Sure it’s implausible that Epstein was murdered by a conspiracy, but it’s also extremely unlikely for a particular inmate to kill themselves. Google is saying the annual suicide rate is something like 150 per 100k prisoners, so 0.15% per year. The prior that it was suicide and not murder is just not that strong.

Been meaning to make a post about this but I’ve had gastro and not been well enough to sit at the computer and do it, so here we go.

So firstly, the correct rate is more like 50 per 100,000:

Suicide, long the leading cause of death in U.S. [federal] jails, hit a high of 50 deaths for every 100,000 inmates in 2014, the latest year for which the government has released data.

It’s actually slightly lower in jails the size of the MCC, but let’s go with 50, so 1 in 2,000. Also, these are yearly numbers. The “vast majority” (I wasn’t able to find numbers on this) of deaths occur within the first two weeks of incarceration. That doesn’t describe Epstein, but it’s sort of close. He was only in there a month and these are yearly numbers, so I think if we halve the chance and make it 1 in 4,000, that seems very fair. It’s worth noting that a lot of jail suicides involve mental health conditions and there’s no evidence Epstein suffered from such a condition.

The base-rate argument of “Hey it’s a 1 in 4,000 chance, that’s really unlikely” wouldn’t be a convincing argument under normal circumstances, because there are a lot of prisoners, even high-profile prisoners, in US jails. The difference in this case is that literally thousands of people, including people ITT, predicted that Epstein would probably die of “suicide” before testifying. When that’s the case and them being right by chance is roughly 1 in 4,000, we need to seriously consider alternative explanations. When there was obvious conspiracy surrounding Epstein’s last encounter with law enforcement, I think anyone not at least seriously considering the possibility of foul play is out of their minds.

Obviously there’s nothing impossible about an unassisted suicide and it’s going to be that some percentage of the time. It’s always hard to compare frequencies of low-probability events to each other. But people shouldn’t kid themselves that “suicides happen all the time in jails” means this wasn’t a very low-probability event.

[ChrisV]

The hyoid bone thing is a complete nothingburger, by the way. In this (very small) study of 20 suicidal hangings in Thai men, 25% of them had hyoid bone fractures. 11 of the 20 were “incomplete hanging”, but all 5 hyoid fractures were incomplete hanging. That’s defined this way:

Incomplete hangings imply that some part of the body is touching the ground and that the weight of the victim is not fully supported by the neck.

That’s supposed to be how Epstein did it, so at least based on that data, a hyoid fracture wouldn’t be unusual at all.