It's Worms All the Way Down: The Ivermectin Thread

[MrWookie]

@JohnnyTruant

At this point I have you and CN actually stating that we don’t know if masks and limits on indoor gatherings have an effect on covid transmission.

@JohnnyTruant

@CaffeineNeeded

We can go about this in several ways:

1. We can show how vaccination rates are very correlated with cases

Then minutes later

And correlation is not causation JT.

Man, for a guy who so frequently questions my reading ability, physician, heal thy fucking self.

[Aofrantic]

Are you willing to behave like this for another year, two, more?

Fair play if you are, truly. Just 99% of people aren’t, and we do have to deal with that reality.

[patron]

Thank you for the response, but this does not answer my questions nor does it support your previous assertion. This study used data from symptomatic people who tested positive for covid. It does not address asymptomatic cases or mildly symptomatic cases that did not get tested. Presumably, there would likely be more vaccinated cases in those categories than in just the symptomatic ones who got tested. So we have no way of knowing how many asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic vaxxed cases there are or how much they cause spread. We do know that vaxxed people can spread, by more than was previously thought. So your assertion of the current wave being due overwhelmingly to the unvaxxed and little to the vaxxed, is unsupported.

[CaffeineNeeded]

@JohnnyTruant

Do you think that limiting indoor gatherings and mask mandates and other NPI have an effect on the spread of covid including the delta variant? This is a yes or no question.

Yes. These things reduce transmission. You’re moving the bar though, because you originally said:

What I am saying is lifting mask mandates and allowing indoor gatherings … was the decision that allowed it to get as bad as it is.

Which is absolutely wrong. Now would be a good time to admit being wrong.

@Vict0ar

no, its still gonna spread thru the vaxxed population.

This is, again, completely wrong and unsupported.

[ChrisV]

@CaffeineNeeded

This is, again, completely wrong and unsupported.

Eh? Of course the virus is going to spread through the vaxxed population.

[MrWookie]

@patron

Presumably, there would likely be more vaccinated cases in those categories than in just the symptomatic ones who got tested.

This is not at all likely given how prevalent asymptomatic covid has been shown to be in unvaccinated people.

@patron

by more than was previously thought

What is your citation for this? Any halfway decent scientist, including me, would have told you at vaccine launch that a vaccinated person who caught covid could spread it.

@patron

So your assertion of the current wave being due overwhelmingly to the unvaxxed and little to the vaxxed, is unsupported.

lol, no. You don’t get to claim that my assertion is “unsupported” when there is considerable evidence in its favor, even if it hasn’t been shown to your satisfaction with impractical experiments. There is nothing that shows it’s the other way. Nothing.

[patron]

@CaffeineNeeded

@patron

Again, how do you know this? How do you know the rate at which vaxxed asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases are contracting and spreading?

This is why I asked you what you’d be willing to accept as a citation. Because we don’t keep track of, afaict, vaccination status with each test.

We can go about this in several ways:

1. We can show how vaccination rates are very correlated with cases
2. We can show data showing the vaccines still work very well
3. We can show how vaccination rates are very correlated with hospitalization, despite the vaccinated being far sicker and older than the unvaccinated
4. We can make a basic germ theory argument

I’m sure there’s other ways, but the overwhelming evidence is one way. I just don’t want to waste everyone’s time if you’re only willing to accept direct measurement.

1. No, we can’t. That’s the point. We can show that vaccination rates are very correlated with symptomatic cases that get hospitalized or tested. We cannot show that vaccination rates are very correlated with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases that do not get tested afaik.
2. Work very well for what? Hospitalized, symptomatic cases? Sure. Basically same point as above. We do not know how much asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic vaccinated cases are spreading.
3. Agreed, but so far these points 1-3 are basically the same thing, and do not support any assertions regarding how much asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic vaccinated cases are spreading.
4. This basic germ theory point you and others have appealed to previously, was shown to be wrong, in terms of vaccinated people being able to spread. We now know that vaxxed people can spread much more than was previously thought.

You refer to “overwhelming evidence” but so far haven’t provided any at all. Do you have any to provide?

[CaffeineNeeded]

COVID has demonstrated an ability to bleed over from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated. It has absolutely not demonstrated the ability to efficiently reproduce through a vaccinated population.

JT - ok bro. You can choose to drink the proverbial water or not. There’s nothing else to carry on for. You have structured no coherent argument to my response, and have fell into simply repeating the same post over and over again.

@Vict0ar

why is it ripping through the UK? one of the highest vaxxed countries in the world.

18th is one of the highest huh? Look I can’t say that I’m intimately familiar with every country’s covid status but if you’d like to support your assertion with actual data instead of question begging I’d appreciate it.

[MrWookie]

@patron

This basic germ theory point you and others have appealed to previously, was shown to be wrong, in terms of vaccinated people being able to spread.

This is dead wrong. We’ve always known vaccinated people can get infected, because the vaccines are not 100% effective. Everyone familiar with basic germ theory would assume that an infected vaccinated person could spread the disease, because that’s true of every other contagious disease.

[ChrisV]

@CaffeineNeeded

18th is one of the highest huh? Look I can’t say that I’m intimately familiar with every country’s covid status but if you’d like to support your assertion with actual data instead of question begging I’d appreciate it.

90% of people in the UK have either recovered from COVID or been double-vaccinated or both. 93% of 16+ year olds in Iceland are double-vaccinated. Neither country is experiencing anything like herd immunity. That herd immunity is impossible is conventional wisdom now.

Delta variant renders herd immunity from Covid ‘mythical’

[CaffeineNeeded]

Your article and argument does not support Victor’s assertion.

[cassette]

I miss Hobbes.

[patron]

@MrWookie

This is not at all likely given how prevalent asymptomatic covid has been shown to be in unvaccinated people.

Why are you assuming that these would be the same? Presumably, being vaccinated would push some portion of symptomatic vaxxed cases, to being asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

What is your citation for this? Any halfway decent scientist, including me, would have told you at vaccine launch that a vaccinated person who caught covid could spread it.

This is not supported by the history of this thread, or even CDC guidelines, which were changed and walked back regarding masks & NPI for vaxxed people, due to change in thinking regarding spread by vaxxed people.

lol, no. You don’t get to claim that my assertion is “unsupported” when there is considerable evidence in its favor, even if it hasn’t been shown to your satisfaction with impractical experiments. There is nothing that shows it’s the other way. Nothing.

What is this “considerable evidence”? You haven’t shown any so far. You are the one who made the original over-reaching assertion, and I simply asked for a cite. You provided a cite of one study that does not support your assertion. If you believe there is “considerable evidence”, please show it. Otherwise, as things currently stand, your statement is literally “unsupported”.

This is dead wrong. We’ve always known vaccinated people can get infected, because the vaccines are not 100% effective. Everyone familiar with basic germ theory would assume that an infected vaccinated person could spread the disease, because that’s true of every other contagious disease.

So what happened with the CDC when it issues, then changed/walked back mask guidance for vaxxed people?

Also, did “everyone familiar with basic germ theory” assume that asymptomatic covid positive people could spread covid, or that in pre-symptomatic people, one of the most contagious periods would be before they showed symptoms?

[eyebooger]

[ChrisV]

@CaffeineNeeded

Your article and argument does not support Victor’s assertion.

You can’t just say this. Why not? “Herd immunity is impossible” and “the virus will be able to spread through a population despite immunity” are identical statements.

[StimAbuser]

Did he pass away? I really liked him too.

[Formula72]

Kudos to whom ever thought of the 10 min post rule - much more enjoyable to follow along for the “lesser avid internet enthusiast” shiuld just make it standard across all threads.

[Aofrantic]

My view isn’t “just get vaxxed and we’re good” and more “this is about as good as its going to get for quite some time.”

There were 12 cases in my city today like I said. If we can’t have movie theatres and restaurants open after weeks of ~a dozen cases a day…

[klingbard]

I realize this thread is a bit of a dumpster fire, but I thought this was worth sharing…

https://twitter.com/WFLA/status/1435760796383039491

(…As yet another example of mainstream media’s scientific illiteracy and misinterpretation, ldo. Horsepaste 4lyfe)

[Tilted]

Yeah he did. I think it was Suzzer who found the news article.