What odds are you giving Bernie to win? Calling it “essentially a tie” seems at odds with agreeing with clovis’ statement that “Bernie isn’t winning, except under extraordinary circumstances.” I think it’s possible the 538 model underestimates the variance, especially given coronavirus (literally extraordinary circumstances), but I doubt Bernie is >5% to win.
I was going to outline the argument that it is not essentially a tie (and am happy to do so if you want) but then you’re probably already aware of it (e.g. Bernie has to win like ~60% of remaining delegates, trails by 20 points in national polls, has not gained ground in later reporting in CA…). I think you have to consider that even if media reporting on the race can accurately be described as “manufacturing consent,” the underlying analysis is accurate. You can do your own if you prefer. That doesn’t mean you’re obligated to give up, that Bernie should concede, or anything else. But saying the race is essentially tied is pretty clearly wrong, IMO.
On one hand, I think everybody is underestimating variance, but on the other, the DNC is not. It might have a whiff of tinfoil but I believe they were playing the covid card when they went with Weekend At Biden’s, in the sense that they knew covid would be something, trump would fuck it up, and the in the aftermath nobody would doubt even a potted plant could win the general. It’s a high-risk high-reward opportunity and could still easily backfire. With no potential pandemic I’m sure they either bend the knee or, more likely, take it to the brokered convention.
Also understand even my fellow dirtbags vehemently disagree and they think all this has made Joe even more unelectable, whereas even before this I thought the idea of anybody losing to trump was smoke and mirrors. I’m largely on my own out on this limb.
Yeah, I know I’m getting cute by saying the actual delegates are actually tied at this actual exact moment. I’d apply the variance argument here too though to make it less cute.
Never said he was a bigger liar than Trump, but ready to step back from the fray here. Trump is way worse than Biden, but shrugging our shoulders and saying we have to vote for whatever POS the dems put forward has left a very bad taste in my mouth. I understand where the others are coming from and am on the fence as to whether I will vote for Biden. The democratic party is shit and needs to be killed. Not sure how to deal with the media, but I will be ceasing my monthly donation to NPR after listening to their election and other coverage. Peace.
the problem is that everyone bitching about vote blue no matter who is just dying to have trump out so they can go back to forgetting about drone wars and families in cages
most warren fans pop in this category because they don’t give a shit about her foreign policy
I totally get it. It sucks. You are being forced to choose between shitty and more shitty. In the past you were asked to do it as a pure ploy to further entrench the DNC centrist powerbase. I don’t begrudge you feeling like this is yet another crying wolf.
My point this whole time is that while the frame is same as the previous disingenuous arguments, this time it really is different. Trump is different. He has to go. A shitty side effect is the DNC will get away with their scam yet again but there is no way around that assuming you agree getting rid of Trump is paramount.
That’s why I said, don’t just begrudgingly vote for Biden. Vote for Biden and then the next day turn your rage into action. Join your local political movement. Start a tea party for progressives. Organize. Now. So that by the time the next primaries come you will have political power the DNC can’t ignore.
You think the RNC welcomed the tea party. Hell no. They fought for years to sideline them but they never gave up.
They took power! Progressives need to do the same.
I posted this the other day but it seems apt again.
Politics is the slow boring of hard boards.
-Max Weber
I’m not sure this is the right analogy for your argument.
They did take power, but they did it by the same kind of scorched earth methods that you’re fervently arguing against.
For example, they took out Mike Castle (a centrist Republican) in the primary to fill Biden’s Delaware senate seat in favor of a complete nutcase who got wafflecrushed in the general election.
The Tea Party people didn’t care though; the message was sent.
I guess my counter is I am generally in favour of forcibly taking back the DNC, even with a serious political body count. I just think Trump is too big a risk to do that right now.
What separates me from the tea party is I say burn baby burn as long as all that’s burning is the DNC and not the world. Trump is burning the world down.
this will probably change pretty soon, but W was worse than trump. Started two forever wars killing and displacing millions. destroyed the economy. to say trump is different you have to not understand how much better off we (and everyone in the middle east) would be if gore had actually been president
It’s also a lock now that given the bungling of this COVID response Trump will be responsible for more actual deaths than both wars and a greater loss of money/capital.
It’s so weird the most self-Identified lefties on here can’t pass up and opportunity to point out how trump isn’t all that bad.