I not sure about that…
Yup, guess I should just ignore them.
Fuck Chris Matthews, his Dubya-voting ass and his rosy memories of politics being somehow better when Reagan was laying the groundwork for tearing the country down.
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It’s CCN (a nonentity), not CNN.
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And what do you think the narrative will be if Bernie wins the first ballot handily and Joe eeks him out on the second ballot? I’m thinking it’ll be something like a CNN lower third graphic of, “BIDEN CRUSHES SANDERS MOMENTUM IN IOWA!!! YAYYYYYYYYYY!”
And don’t forget, “Top 72 Reasons It’s Good Biden Stomped Sanders in Iowa,” by Chris Cillizza.
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COMEBACK KID VANQUISHES SOCIALIST
… Which will further drive a wedge between the left and the centrists and be weaponized by the Bernie campaign in texts asking for still more money.
That outcome is a push. A push is fine. It’s also less likely than Bernie just steamrolling everyone with superior turnout today.
They don’t release first ballot caucus results, do they? I don’t remember that in past years.
This year they are IIRC. Also people are freaking out about Bernie potentially declaring victory after the first ballot, which he probably should as a matter of strategy. Honestly just looking at how important turnout is in Iowa and looking at the large enthusiasm gaps between the Bernie supporters and the Biden supporters I’m expecting this to be a pretty big moment for Bernie.
If my understanding is correct, they will be releasing first ballot results at the same time as final results, but could be wrong. Either way I expect multiple people will claim victory tonight.
Mainlining boredsocials optimism.
The turnout for Biden will be high regardless of enthusiasm, because old white people always show up. But it’s a capped turnout, whereas the sky is the limit for Bernie’s turnout. The 99% control their fate in these caucuses; all they have to do is get out and vote. The high enthusiasm for Bernie may, for once, cause exactly that.
I’m feeling optimistic too, but cautiously so, because we need to win by wide margins given the uneven playing field.
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Yeah, even if Bernie wins delegates and first ballot Kloboucher or someone will claim a “win” for getting delegates or something. Hell even Biden can spin not getting shut out as a win since they’ve been tempering expectations from the start.
I’m expecting a lot of Yang people to turn out as well… but I’m not expecting him to get to 15% obviously. Almost all of those people will ultimately end up with Bernie unless Yang does REALLY well, which honestly would be fine with me.
Their tempering expectations is actually a big factor for my optimism. I suspect they have more information about what’s coming than we do, and they’ve been spinning down expectations hard… which is what you do when you’re fairly convinced it could be really bad.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RAICESTEXAS/status/1224314583256633344
https://mobile.twitter.com/RAICESTEXAS/status/1224314584946958337
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