Maybe just maybe they should have gotten things done since LBJ that helped normal people. One way or another this is the end of an era. They better hope it’s the end of systematic legal corruption and not the end of the republic… although I suspect strongly that a lot of them would prefer the latter to the former.
I’m sorry but if I can root for a massive carbon tax from the trucking business they should be willing to clean up their own industries problems without being little bitches about it. To be clear a carbon tax would be BAD for my business. Like really really bad.
I am only one precinct but I will post as many live updates from my precinct as I can tonight.
Hoping for a Warren/Bernie 1/2 combo in either order.
Predicting a collapse in Biden support as he finishes 4th tonight.
Predicting massive confusion because of the way the results work. It’s like a mini electoral college where you don’t need to win the popular vote to win.
Multiple candidates are going to end up claiming they won tonight.
I think the 15% threshold makes the most likely delegate results one of the following:
*Bernie, Joe, Pete
Or
*Joe, Bernie, Liz
My prediction for order after round 1:
*Bernie, Joe, Liz, Pete, Klob, Yang
With all but Bernie and Joe under 15%
After round 2:
*Joe, Bernie, Liz
With all above 15%
But there’s also a decent chance I’m not understanding how this works.
I’m a little concerned that the 15% threshold will hurt Bernie, but I’m also in favor of ranked choice voting so I guess I can’t complain. Ideally the first round results will be Bernie 30%, Biden/GOPete both at 15.01%.
This, if true (and it probably isn’t because if she doesn’t get delegates in IA she’s got 0% equity) is nothing but good news. I feel like very few Klob voters are going to go for any progressive but Warren… and that’s pretty dubious. They seem like Klob->Pete->Biden->Warren people mostly… and those people being fragmented all the way to super tuesday is totally fine with me.
It would be because the mediocre centrists fall below 15% and their supporters move to Joe, giving Joe the win even if Bernie wins first-choice. Seems pretty realistic imo.
Maybe. Bernie still gets to claim the win on the first round ballot. The actual delegates don’t matter because there are a trivial number of them. The narrative is everything. Bernie winning first ballot, Biden 2nd-3rd, Warren 2nd-3rd, Pete 3rd-4th, Klob 3rd-4th, Yang 5th isn’t that bad. Particularly since Bernie is highly likely to pickup nearly 100% of the Yang people and the majority of the Steyer people.
I agree that it’s pretty important for Pete or Klob to get to 15% so that Biden doesn’t get to soak up their supporters that don’t like Bernie… although Warren benefits quite a bit from that as well.
For me bernie “wins” if he destroys the notion that ‘sure biden sucks but he can win so we gotta get behind him.’ Dem primary voters already love him he has huge personal favourables but they’re not sure he can win. If he can break that mindset he’s off to the races.
Sure but I’m pessimistic, because you’ve got to factor in the biases of the people that control the narrative. The media will pick up whatever narrative is more favorable to Biden. Biden wins first vote and Bernie wins more delegates after the second round? Headlines tomorrow: “Biden wins popular vote at Iowa caucus, cementing his status as frontrunner”
Bernie wins first vote and Biden picks up more delegates after the second round? Headlines tomorrow: “Biden wins most delegates in Iowa, cementing his status as frontrunner”
They don’t control the narrative at all though. And Bernie has done an outstanding job of minimizing expectations of them giving him favorable coverage. That’ll just feed the feeling of being persecuted by the media on the left which further drives turnout.
