Why am I bracing myself? Forcing most businesses to close leads to massive, unprecedented unemployment? You don’t say?!?!?
The response is also unprecedented, guaranteeing up to ~$50k in salary for everyone for 4 months.
And you can bank on Mitch, Trump and Co. eagerly printing trillions more when needed in a month or two to try and secure their re-election. Mitch himself is personally up for re-election, it’s going to be print brrrrr print brrrr.
How it all shakes out, who knows, but going to be seeing lots of “unprecedented” #s across the board.
If it continues to go up throughout the day today, I’ll probably make another bet against the market near the end of the day. I’m also prepared to get news that the economy has literally stopped while the market continues to go up.
A large percentage of lower income people are about to temporarily make a lot more money every month without having to work. What do they send their money on when there is no restaurants, bars, concerts, movies, ect?
Pretty likely to see high inflation in groceries imo if the current shortages persist. It’s been a month around me and stores are still having problems keeping items in stock.
Staple inflation is already definitely happening where I’m at. Paid $2.5 for a dozen eggs the other day. Often they are .49/12 and pretty much never more than .99/12
After striking out on a bunch of my items for my Kroger pick-up yesterday, I hit the Publix within walking distance of my house (5 min) right when it opened this morning.
Meat section was barren. There were a handful of things, but basically nothing. I got a couple packs of ground beef. No chicken, pork, etc. No frozen meats except some Bubba Burgers and Steakum. No frozen chicken patties, fingers, nuggets, what-have-you.
Obviously no TP and what-not. No rice or pasta (except gluten free). Bread was being stocked. No bagels. Plenty of milk and eggs. Produce selection was good.
Took the stuff home, wiped down the refrigerated and frozen stuff before putting them away and decided to try Aldi.
Aldi was much better. Still barely any fresh meat, though I did get a couple steaks and Italian sausage. A lot of frozen chicken, though, which was a relief. It will be a little pain in the ass to thaw them, but at least we can have a decent dinner, rather than just pasta or soup. They even had a few packs of TP, but I left them, since I’m good.
Euro and gold are both currently up like 1.2% against the dolar, so that is about the effect of the monteary stimulus.
I think the rest of today’s action is the reverse of ‘buy the rumor sell the news’. People knew the unemployment number would be awful or fake, now that it is out there is probably less concern for what it could be and if the stimulus was porportional to the economic effects.
I expect the market to be a lot lower in a week or two.
Just posting to publicly say that I think it’s bonkers that the market is up. I think next week’s new unemployment claims are going to be stunningly bad, and I think people are underestimating the extent to which unemployment claims are capturing true job loss (because of all the people who don’t qualify for UI). It is very difficult right now for me to just say “You can’t predict the market” and stay in equities. Because I sure as hell believe stock prices will be substantially lower in 6 months than they are now.
I guess this is me trying to publicly commit to staying the course despite how dire I think the outlook is.
Yeah, tempting to sell the surge today based on the undeniable fact that the unemployment #s coming out of CA & NY for last week are fake news.
But that is the kind of thing that finance bros are on top of as much as we are whereas I knew w/ 99% certainty that finance bros didn’t see the Coronavirus effects coming the way we did. So I’m staying the course.
I just filed for unemployment, which is super surreal. I’m not going to pretend like I didn’t find paying for unemployment insurance on myself super annoying up until about two days ago when I realized that I absolutely qualified. I guess I’m going to get that money back and then some… All that had to happen was a world economy wrecking pandemic. I probably won’t bitch about UI payments on myself again after this honestly.
There’s probably a lot of people trying to file unemployment who just can’t get through on the phone too, since all reports are that the phone lines are basically just endless busy signal.
and I have friends in the same boat of employer giving 2 more paychecks to end of the month.
I don’t buy a one time wave of 3 million new claims as the worst of it at all.
Yeah. Same for stuff like global supply chain collapse or debt unwinding or w/e. My buddy says great depression imminent. And he makes compelling arguments. But he always thinks the worst is coming. And always likes gold.
I’m like - I could certainly see a depression happening. Or maybe just a bad recession. Or maybe somehow we bounce back in 18 months-ish. I’m not smart enough to try to out guess the market on those things.
Remember the Obama days when bad unemployment #s meant the stock market would actually go UP because that was Helicopter Ben’s cue to print more money?.. yeah, none of us have any clue how this is going to play out…
I see a Great Depression coming w/ 100% certainty unless unprecedented action (on top of what has been done so far) is taken… but I also see w/ 100% certainty that unprecedented action will continue to be taken. How it shakes out, particularly for stock prices, who knows.
Trump and Mnuchin are actually pretty good in this respect, they have zero principles… which means they have zero qualms about printing money any which way possible. Them big leaguing Lindsey Graham, Tim Scott, etc. on unemployment insurance is a good example.