Weren’t you who posted the “buy and hold works, even if you bought it at the market top every time” article - which conveniently did not go back to 1929?
You probably already know that, but dividend yields were super high, so when you look at total returns the breakeven period is something like 15 years. Still terrible, obviously.
I’m w/ Suzzer in the I don’t know wtf is going to happen from here category. Feel like median projections of Coronavirus impact are somewhere in ballpark of where I am. Setting portfolio at 95/5 equity/bonds at close today and forgetting it until retirement/the next black swan that Unstuck identifies.
Market tanking at end of day so I can only assume Trump is talking.
Negative yields on US treasuries today too. First time ever.
Someday I’ll have to just bite the bullet and learn what yields mean, again. Then I’ll forget a week later. I never mess with bonds so it never sticks.
I bet people are jumping out now because they’re afraid of overnight news. Not a great sign for this rally imo, as news is just going to get worst daily for the next couple weeks at least.
think it was on this news https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bernie-sanders-4-gop-senators-threaten-to-hold-up-coronavirus-stimulus-bill.html
- The prospect of a planned Senate vote on a $2 trillion stimulus package in response to the coronavirus pandemic dimmed Wednesday as senators threatened to hold up the legislation.
- First, four GOP senators said they could delay the bill over a core unemployment insurance provision.
- Then, Sen. Bernie Sanders said he would delay the bill if his Republican colleagues did not drop their opposition.
Just pulled some data and it’s pretty crazy how big a difference dividends make. This graph is the cumulative portfolio value based on the overall market (not just DOW), starting on January 1, 1926. Orange is based on returns excluding dividends, blue includes dividends.
Some key stats:
- High point prior to the great depression was on 9/7/1929 (for the including dividend portfolio).
- Excluding dividends, the portfolio didn’t reach that level again until November 1954 (25 years).
- Including dividends, the portfolio reached that level in 1945 (16 years)
You’ll see some people make the argument that ACTUALLY, it took even less than 16 years to recover the peak value because of significant deflation during this period, so that you recovered the peak purchasing power after about 4-5 years. I think this is a kind of dumb argument, but whatever.
By 1956 or so, the portfolio including dividends was worth roughly 4 times as much as the porfolio excluding dividends.
yeah, but was so long ago each point was worth like a million points today…
Does that include reinvesting dividends?
Yes
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Unbeatably efficient markets, JT.
Short covering. If I had sold a bunch on the way down, I for sure would have covered under 19000. And if not then, certainly now.
I just can’t believe on incredibly stupid everything is. Are we heading for 10% of the country needing hospitalization? Won’t that have an actual negative effect on returns for the foreseeable future?
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Market dgaf about the Spanish Flu so who the hell knows.
Who can predict these things? Nobody knows. It’s probably already priced in. /s
3.3 mil unemployment
mr market: this is bullish
and yet the market today is completely unfazed?
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