Suzzer that’s crap. I’ve read at least 20 “I’m moving to cash, this is the big one” posts from you over the past 10 years.
I’m not going to spend any more time educating people like d10. Total waste of time. Part of the reason the argument is so seductive is that every crash seems inevitable in hindsight, and some percentage of people will have predicted it. Just like the many prior times they made a similar prediction only to have the market continue to go up.
No you haven’t. This is the first time I’ve moved to cash since like 2010/11 when I got spooked on the way up. Yeah that was a mistake I don’t plan to make again. I thought I was a genius enough to make short term market timing moves (which I feel like is what you think I’m talking about). I will never think I can time the market on short term again. When I do get back in I’m going to put it in a few blue chips and forget about it.
Here’s the thread - knock yourself out.
I actually timed the top and bottom of the financial crisis - which I don’t chalk anything up to dumb luck. But having my money in cash beforehand because I knew something was out of whack, and listening to a traditional bear (Bill Fleckenstein) who was 100% right about the dotcom bubble and calling it out long before it popped - those things were a little more than dumb luck. It was a calculated guess and I was right.
I bought back in right when Fleck did. What I didn’t do was take Fleck’s advice and just put it in MSFT and forget it.
I think the market has massively more downside potential than upside right now. I’m taking a calculated gamble selling because I feel it’s a bigger gamble to hold.
Anyway I’m not here trying to preach black swan market timing and I’m not bashing buy and hold. I’m just saying what I’m doing and my thought process.
Lol I was just looking at that thread:
I just see a lot of the initial wave of unemployed to be in the renter class. The senior death toll is not going to flood the market. A lot of seniors who are at risk are not living alone in a single family home, and we are still likely looking at a similar death toll to cancer in a given year, it will be a slight increase in supply but it will be offset by low interest rates. Housing prices are pretty sticky. A lot of seller can’t afford to keep dropping prices as they don’t have the equity to take much of a loss. Prolonged shutdown could also impact construction of new houses reducing supply
lol, 3/2/09 was almost exactly the bottom
Yeah I’ve already been worried about buying a home before a lot of Boomers pass because the demand for homes will go way down, this could definitely speed that up.
Yeah like it seems pointless to stay in cash to protect yourself from the worst case scenario in this one.
The CFD Dow market (Weekend Wall Street) is almost 1000 points down right now (4.25%). Trump might have to gather up all the cronies again on Monday. Maybe this time they can bring pom poms.
I think Friday could go down as the dumbest rally in the history of Wall St. Although I’m guessing there were some dumber ones in 1929-33.
I’m told that the rally was caused not by the CEO pep parade, but by the Fed’s injection. I’m also told that they’re not done. But I agree that the S&P will probably go back down.
I gotta say, I was astonished when the market didn’t react at all to China’s lockdowns however many weeks ago. My colleague replied that we had been in a “zombie market” for a while.
How is that possible unless they injected it directly into the market? And shouldn’t the market have already priced it in before Friday afternoon just based on the earlier announcements? I can’t keep track of what happened when anymore because everything is moving so fast, but if you’re talking about the $1.5 trillion I think that was announced a day or two earlier at least.
And there’s a lot of people who were arguing before that that we were already in a huge unsustainable bubble with endless quantitative easing, stock buybacks, and PE ratios so far out of line with historic #s it made no sense.
That’s why I was always thinking DOW 36k would be my target to massively rebalance and play it safer. I figured by that point your mailman would start asking for stock tips again. I thought it would happen like a year into Trump’s second term.
But then again those people (like Peter Schiff) have been screaming unsustainable bubble forever. So of course they look right when something pops.
Since the market did not start rising appreciably until after the presser started, your view seems wrong.
The market is so volatile right now, it’s hard to imagine what drives it. A few started jumping in on the upside during the speech and all the momentum investors jumped in. They don’t care because they can just jump out again at a moment’s notice.
We should take out a little money and day trade. You tell me exactly what you’re going to do and when, and I will make the exact opposite move. Would be fun to see how it goes.
What exactly did the market like about the conference? That Trump got through it without doing something as stupid as the Europe ban?
The only thing I can think of is that the overt pro-corporation posturing was reassuring, i.e. everyone knows that Trump is a clown but at least he is overtly prioritizing corporations over citizens. That’s good for the market!
At least he seems to be taking it seriously finally. It’s a lot better than his Wed night disaster.
Lowest of the low bars itt.
Guess I was wrong to call peak panic, hearing companies are already scrambling like it’s 2008 this weekend.
Valid questions, so I asked him just now. His response:
Not directly into stock, but the liquidity injections through the systems has the ripple effect. Especially through the banks. Look into overnight swap lines and what now has become daily repos (repurchase agreement operations) through the repo market.
But they also announced openly they would expand asset classes, so that can mean anything.
Besides in reality, it is no secret Fed intervenes directly into markets through their open market desk. What is commonly referred to as the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) to intervene with equities and credit markets when needed. All the insiders are 100% sure Friday was them.
It does not take much to get it started and sustained. Algos help the ramp once they identify it. The only selling they have to worry about is institutions using the liquidity and price rise as an exit hatch to unload the positions and sell into the strength.
I bet you they did not spend more than 50 billion on Friday.
Statement Regarding Treasury Reserve Management Purchases and Repurchase Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
The Repo Market, Explained — And Why The Fed Has Pumped Billions Into It | Bankrate
Above some explanation on simple terms. But the real effect is not discussed here. They hide it. Its all QE, and the connection between these operations and equity prices is clear. Complex piping but all leads to the same: Capitalism for the Poor and Middle, socialistic wealth distribution to the elite via the Fed.
Not just the FED (US):
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
I bolded the boldest-sounding claims. Y’all be the judge, I wouldn’t know about this stuff. I just did some coding and math for the guy. His creds: he trades for a living and spends all day err’ day glued to charts. Reads everything and is friends with lots of big whigs. But his anti-creds: he’s a believer in technical indicators lol.
You really think this?
