What happens when the trading floor closes to prevent the spread of COVID-19? That’s gotta be a discussion, right?
According to the COVID thread on 2p2 BFI, nobody actually trades on the floor anymore, it’s all electronic. Discussion is around (+ and -) post #600 if you want to give DS clicks to read it. Not really much discussion though, just a question and someone answered.
Thanks… Good enough for me. I thought it was like 95% electronic, not 100. There still seems to be a lot of hustle and bustle on the exchange floor when they show it on TV, so I figured they were doing important things.
Guess they’re just giving silly tv interviews about how amazingly safe Lehman Bros and Bear Stearns are, and such.
I know nothing but it would be shocking to me if the markets didn’t have a long way to go down
1)It’s only going to get worse here.
2)It’s only going to get worse almost everywhere.
3)None of us have lived through something like this (and frankly you could argue it has never happened as 1918 was before international flight) so it is very very likely the market is not efficiently pricing this in.
As simp said that opinion is worth what you paid for it.
I’d hammer that under
I’m going to sell and eat some losses now because I am of the same opinion. Obviously I am not even at a layperson level of knowledge or acumen. Just seems like USA is a disaster and in the end they dictate the world. If/when people Italy style closures happen I think there could several really bad days.
Eh, as someone who has been on the lol efficient markets side, it’s getting to the point where I wouldn’t recommend selling. I’m 60% in now, and continuing to deploy 5% in every day or so.
It’s going to be really bad for 2-3 months then it’s going to be over as far economic impact is concerned. They aren’t going to be canceling events and stuff after we’ve passed the peak, even if the virus is still around.
And playing with options is idiotic for the lay person. That’s a whole other ballgame from risking a few % return trying to buy the dips.
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No options, just dumping index funds into cash. I recognise its -ev and I’m guilty of letting emotions get the best of me (disappointment at losses already sustained). Will have a think further, thanks for the post.
Just a reminder that the Great Depression followed a nearly 90% loss, and the 2008 Great Recession was over 50%. If we open another 7% down (likely) we’ll be at 25%. There are maybe some future outcomes where we’re near the bottom, but there are probably more outcomes where we still have some room to drop. On top of that, we’re not immediately shooting back up to ATH in the best case scenario - massive economic damage has already been done. More likely this is the new baseline. Nobody’s going to get back into 100+ PE growth stocks anytime soon. In the worst case scenario, and also the median scenario, this is nowhere near the bottom.
d10,
You are the noise I seek to ignore. Sorry to possibly hurt your feelings but you don’t know anything special and you aren’t smarter than the market. Or, if you are, you’re leveraging it very, very poorly.
I don’t need my investments for at least 20 years, probably more. Just going to read this on repeat while the world burns today:
Wooooof bloodbath
It’s incredible how much the cruise lines have gotten hammered. It’s almost tempting to buy them. ALMOST.
Norwegian is down to $10.51 pre-market. 52-week high is almost $60.
I haven’t even looked at my investments. Don’t want to witness the carnage. At some point I might put more in, but we’ve been burning through cash since the summer, so it’s possible I just hold steady. I do have some cash in an IRA, so I’ll probably put that into something.
Your read is accurate, but that puts me in a pretty comfortable place. I’m not smart enough to start a hedge fund or profit off losses. Best I can do is recognize when the market is wildly failing to price in near lock risks and save my money.
That link you posted has been posted here before. I’ve already debunked its faulty math. Do your thing though. FWIW if I had held on up to this point I don’t think I would exit here either. Being on the other side of it I think getting out is still the right play though. I realize that means I’m susceptible to cognitive biases that could negatively affect any edge I think I have, but I’m confident enough I’m on the right side of it in this case to stick with what I’m doing.
I wanted to reiterate I was definitely not giving anyone any investment advice. I am purely speculating. I just think the odds of having some severe economic contagion from here has to be very high. If I didn’t think the Dems were the Washington Generals I would also suspect they would block any meaningful corporate bailout. But they won’t, so that is the clearest path forward for the stock market to stabilize/go up.
Perfect description ha ha.
So we’re going to hit a circuit breaker within a minute or less of the open? Feels like it but who knows.
I’m buying today, and more as it continues to fall.
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”
I’m terrified, I know we could have a long way down to go, but this is in an IRA and I’m 33. It’s got 27 years to recover and grow. And if we go all the way down, like 90% down, likelihood is savings get hammered by deflation anyway.