Jesus fuck my 20K by end of March prediction is going to beat it by two weeks.
Holy shit.
Futures down a K
It may break everything still, but I’m not sure this point is true. I thought a lot of companies are sitting on lots of cash.
We have not yet begun to panic
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You’re welcome for continuing to provide what should’ve been an obvious reality check for this thread instead of going off and creating my own hedge fund.
I realize the people clinging to a long term hold strategy might have interpreted my posts as rearward looking only, because forward looking is impossible, just a reminder though that that was never the case. Yes this post specifically is me spiking the football, if you’re butthurt about that because you insisted on holding despite all evidence pointing to that as an insane strategy, don’t @ me, just go ahead and block me and do your thing.
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I’m definitely not butthurt. I’m still perfectly happy with my asset allocation, not thinking about selling, and don’t even remotely give a shit what you think. Again, it’s definitely possible to time the market. Congrats on doing so. Why you want to gloat about successfully doing so to people who have just lost hundreds of thousands of dollars, well, I will certainly admit to not quite understanding that impulse. But, in any case, fuck off.
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Because a large source of my information comes from others posting insightful comments on message boards. Because I think it’s fair to give my own thoughts in return, which are sometimes correct, and let others decide if those thoughts are valuable to them. Because sometimes my thoughts are incorrect, and discussing both sides can help me realize where I’m wrong. Because despite claiming to not care, you consistently come across as a condescending prick, as if your strategy is scientifically superior and only a fish running hot would disagree (in fact I’m certain you still believe this), so fuck your hundreds of thousands. I’ve saved myself a similar amount, so thank you for in effect personally funding years of my retirement. I couldn’t have done it without investors like you holding far beyond a reasonable time frame, artificially propping up prices for weeks, leaving me plenty of time to escape the worst.
I am quite certain my strategy will work out well for me. It is certainly the only strategy I would recommend to anyone else, and I will continue to do so. If you can correctly time the markets, that’s great for you. Congratulations. Timing the market (if you’re able to do so) will certainly be a long-term successful stratey that will make you very rich. But not timing the market is also likely to be a long-term successful strategy, and for those of us who are – unlike yourself – unable to beat the market, it is likely the most sucessful strategy available to us. So it’s not clear what you hope to accomplish here. Many people in this thread have made it clear that they are not interested in beating the market. Not because they wouldn’t like to, but because they don’t think that they can. Obviously you can. But what are we plebs supposed to do with the knowledge that our betters, like yourself, can beat the market? That’s not clear.
We should have a contest to call the bottom.
DJIA, lowest close of 2020.
I’m guessing 18118.18
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You keep clinging to this theory that like only the top 1% of professionals can beat the market (or whatever the smart research shows) when my entire point is that the past few weeks have been a unique situation where that common wisdom should not be trusted. You yourself posted that if a [wildly conservative] projection of 10% of the US population becomes infected and the CFR is only 0.5% it would be insane to stay in the market. I’m not sure why there’s such a disconnect between your analysis given reality and your actions but whatever, piss away another few hundred thousand if that’s what makes you feel better.
I say 21,000 on April 1 (goes to 20k, heads back up). 19k on Dec 31, 2020. (This prediction is worth what you paid for it.) I’ve been 40% cash (FDIC ftw) and 60% govt bonds for last 6 months. I may buy an index fund around 21k once we get a better sense of things. I’m hearing 0.6% morbidity based on South Korea’s experience.
Something I don’t understand, say Italy stops spread. If they open back up and people travel, say in June, can’t it begin again? I understand flattening the curve of infection, but I think global society gonna be fairly locked down until there is a vaccine. People have been saying like 14 months for a vaccine, but I’d think they could semi-rush trials in the face of a worldwide pandemic, so maybe 8 months until a “pretty sure it’s safe and effective” vaccine? (I know nothing about about making or testing vaccines, btw.)
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Cryptocurrency has prepared me well for these swongs! I’m not retiring anytime soon though. For people who are, this is def rough. I have been saving money on the side for a house down payment but instead I’m going to try to put in some buys over the next few months because the entry is too good to pass up. S&P500 @ 2000 and @ 1500 are numbers I have in my mind for adding large amounts to my stock holdings (~2000 was the top in year 2015, ~1500 was the top in year 2000 and again in the year 2008)
Also, hope that people ITT who are so unequivocally certain what the market is going to do every day are doing leveraged longs/shorts, because you stand to make a lot more money doing that than just selling and re-buying lower. Honestly you are leaving millions of dollars on the table if that is the case. For me, buy and hold is what makes the most sense, because I’m not confident in my ability to predict the market, and also don’t like to fuck around with my retirement fund in that way.
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I’ve laid out what my strategy and rationale is. It’s the strategy I had today, yesterday, a month ago, a year ago. It doesn’t change when an event happens or crisis unfolds. I certainly don’t know that 30 million Americans will become infected with coronavirus. If I did know that, of course I would sell my stocks. But I don’t know what is going to happen, so I’m not selling anything.
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Watch the Rogan video in the dedicated thread. 12 months to a vaccine is a long shot. Virus outbreaks will re-occur. Hopefully those who get better will have immunity so crowd immunity will dampen future flareups. Best outcome is to keep outbreaks small so victims can get care.
If I knew a way to risk $2k to win ??? on Dow going to around 18K I would do it.
It is going to be three months to get the mice needed to even start testing vaccines.
South Korea is testing literally thousands times more people than we are, they’re trying experimentally treatments that are low risk but not proven to work (although so far they seem to be helping) and the testing is giving them a head start on treating people early and keeping the hospitals functioning well.
Once we get through the initial global wave, all developed countries should be able to:
- Test a lot
- Keep hospitals running smoothly
- Get citizens to take precautions to slow the spread
- Have more information on experimental treatments and best practices
It’s not unreasonable to think the global mortality rate from novel coronavirus in the next 3-4 months is going to be like 2% overall, but that once things stabilize it’ll be more like .4 to .6%. So it’ll be bad, but it might not cripple the global economy once we’re past the first wave. It depends how much risk people/governments are comfortable taking, and I’m not sure how to answer that.
This would be a put option, I believe. I don’t know much about it, but my understanding is that you pay a premium to buy the option to, in this case, sell the Dow Jones at $X by Y date. So, for example, you could buy a put to sell the Dow for 20K by the end of the year, and you would make $2K (minus the premium) if it went to 18. That put is currently $15.14 for the DJX, which runs at 1/100th of the DJIA.
So you pay $15.14, that’s the max you can lose. If it gets to $180 you sell and make 20-15.14 = $4.86.
The cost for the same option but with a strike date of April 17 is $4.85 right now. So in that case you’d make $15.15 in profits if it hit 18K.
Someone with more experience can correct me if I’m wrong.
Options are considered risky, not for the average investor, etc, etc, and I’m not sure if you can use them in a tax advantaged account.
And another 6% of the DAX pre trading this morning. My brother said he wanted to get into the market if we reach 10000. We probably breakthrough this point as soon as trading starts. I made an order yesterday. But have divided my money into 3 potential investments.I am just assuming that the market will dip further once public life gets restricted here in Germany and later in the US. Poland is closing schools and kindergartens next monday. All money I can spare. My other investment will probably be the 12.5m SM in 2 weeks. I just play that outside the bankroll as if I would have gone to a live mtt. 
Old article but the strategy is still valid, just different numbers today:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/053115/how-buy-options-dow-jones.asp
Look into the “put” section. Most brokerages will allow you to do this but you’ll need to sign some agreements confirming it’s what you want and acknowledging the risks. Some options expose you to unlimited risk (i.e. well above your deposit amount - effectively up to the limit they trust you can deposit to cover) so make sure you actually understand the terms of whatever you buy. You could just buy as many put contracts as you can get for $2k though, then at worst you’re out $2k, and at best you could earn like 100x that, depending on how far and how fast you want to bet on it dropping.